Categories

Archives

Zack Greinke Appreciation

ubelmann September 17, 2009, at 12:10 pm 50 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

I come with a confession--I have yet to see Zack Greinke pitch this year. Looking at his stats, though, he's been absolutely phenomenal. His 2.34 FIP, should it hold up, would beat Santana's best season FIP by about half a run. Now, if you look at his xFIP--3.33--it's not quite so impressive and shows that he may be getting lucky on home runs this year. Santana's best xFIP was 3.28 in 2004, so he's had seasons pretty close to this, but for whatever reason--luck or otherwise--he hasn't been able to avoid HRs like Greinke has this year.

Is this some skill that Greinke has? I wouldn't totally rule it out the way that I would dismiss the idea that some mediocrity like Nick Blackburn would have some special stranglehold over his HR/FB ratio, but most pitchers ultimately regress to a typical HR/FB rate, even the great ones.

Joe Posnanski has been on the Greinke for Cy bandwagon, and while Greinke certainly has a strong case, it is interesting to look at this year's xFIP leaders:

3.16 -- Roy Halladay
3.32 -- Jon Lester
3.33 -- Zack Greinke
3.43 -- Justin Verlander
3.59 -- Josh Beckett
3.60 -- Felix Hernandez
3.84 -- Gavin Floyd
3.95 -- CC Sabathia
4.04 -- Brett Anderson
4.08 -- John Lackey

I have no idea what happened to Lester, but he's pumped up his K/G rate by about 3 this year while maintaining his walk rate. That's the sort of improvement that the Twins seemingly expected out of Glen Perkins, but it's really a rather astounding improvement that you rarely see.

Anyway, the enemy of my enemy is my friend, and I haven't seen Greinke pitch yet this year, so I'll be following today's Tigers-Royals tilt at least somewhat.

2009 Game 47: Red Sox @ Twins

FirstTimeLongTime May 26, 2009, at 6:04 pm 169 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Jon Lester (xFIP 3.79)

@

Nick Blackburn (xFIP 5.06)

First off, let me say Joe Mauer is better than Babe Ruth, Seabiscut, really good beer, and a weekday off from work combined.   I was going to start throwing around some numbers today to show the historical significance of what he is doing right now but socal beat me to the punch.  After that I thought that maybe I could write a piece about how Joe Mauer makes me feel like I am an eight year old girl and reminds me exactly why I love baseball in the first palace.  But then Joe Posnanski had to go and do that. So here I am without anything to write about. And sadly, I don't have the time to come up with a new idea or the patience that would be required to do research on such a topic.

I do have one additional thought on Mauer's performance as of late;  this, right now, is better than Santana's prime to me.   After Johan was dialed in, striking out batter after batter, we had to wait four more days before we could see him do it again.   With Mauer, each day is a new adventure.   If Baby Jebus does something out of this world, like hitting a 2 run, pinch hit, home run in the bottom of the ninth, we only have to wait 24 more hours to see what he would be up to next.  We are watching something special right now.

Enjoy.

Taking a Look at the Santana Trade

ubelmann December 10, 2008, at 6:42 pm 13 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , , , , , , , ,

Q: How did the Twins compete after trading away the best pitcher in baseball?

A: That trade didn't actually hurt them.

Click here to continue reading Taking a Look at the Santana Trade...

ALDS: Red Sox versus Angels Game 4!

eschapp October 6, 2008, at 6:37 pm 6 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , ,

Battle of the Jo[h]ns: Round 2.

This series finally has some drama. Last night the Angels staved off elimination by winning an extra-inning road game at Fenway against Josh Beckett. They must be elated right now, but their job does not get any easier tonight. The Halos must beat Jon Lester at home in order to force a Game 5 in the series. Lester has been nothing short of excellent in postseason play going 2-0 with a 1.10 ERA in four appearances, including two starts during his career. The Angels know all too well how good Lester has been lately after he received the win in Game 1 of this series. This should be a great game to watch. Will the road team continue to win? Or will the Red Sox finish what they started in California?

Question: Did Torii redeem himself with last night's performance?

Game One Info

The Game starts at 7:37 CDT at Fenway Park.

Game One Probable Pitchers:

Red Sox: Jon Lester 16-6 (tRA+: 124; xFIP: 4.19; ERA: 3.21)

Angles: John Lackey 12-5 (tRA+: 92; xFIP: 3.99; ERA: 3.75)

Here's some extra reading for your perusal.

Torii Hunter's Postseason "Blog"

Jacoby Ellsbury's Postseason "Blog"

ALDS: Red Sox versus Angels Game 1

eschapp October 1, 2008, at 8:00 pm 10 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , ,

Series Schedule:

Game One Info
Game One Probable Pitchers:
Red Sox: Jon Lester 16-6 (tRA+: 124; xFIP: 4.19; ERA: 3.21)

Angles: John Lackey 12-5 (tRA+: 92; xFIP: 3.99; ERA: 3.75)

Simulation:

Here's some extra reading for your perusal.
Torii Hunter's Postseason "Blog"
Jacoby Ellsbury's Postseason "Blog"
WWL Experts' Picks

Game 90: Twins vs. Crimson Hosers

ubelmann July 8, 2008, at 5:00 pm 191 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Blackburn v. Lester

Now that Lester has started throwing more strikes and has his xFIP down to 4.17, I'm less of a hater.

The Red Sox are currently in second place in the AL East. I see two clear reasons for this:

1) The Red Sox are not superheroes in a cartoon.
2) The Rays are THE DEFENDERS OF THE GAME.

Really, everyone in the AL should just be re-tooling for next year. Unless they can come out with cartoons of comparable quality, I just don't see anyone touching the Rays.

2008 Game 33: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

ubelmann May 9, 2008, at 5:00 pm 241 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Jon Lester vs. Boof Bonser

Jon Lester is one of those pitchers I just don't "get." Or rather, I don't understand where all the hype comes from. In the minors, Lester had 203 walks in 486 innings, and holy crap that's a lot of walks. As one might reasonably expect, his walk rate has increased now that he's facing better hitters. He's allowed 100 walks in 190 innings, for a rather crazy 4.7 BB/9 rate. And he hasn't exactly been showing progress--so far this year he's allowed 26 walks in 45.7 innings, for a 5.1 BB/9 rate.

To be particularly valuable with a walk rate like that, you'd better be missing an awful lot of bats or getting an awful lot of ground balls. Lester has been getting ground balls (46 GB%) at about a league average rate (45% GB%) so far, but his strikeout rate this year (5.2 K/G) is below league average (6.2 K/G).

I hear he has the famous "bulldog mentality" on the mound and it's true that he throws with his left hand, but I don't think he's going to be above replacement level unless he can really improve his control, and I doubt he's going to improve his control very much at this stage of his career.

Boof's had a really low walk rate so far this year, but it figures to go up as tonight's contest wears on. The Red Sox have 138 walks so far this season--good for 3rd most in the AL--nearly twice as many walks as the Twins have (70).

It'll be interesting tonight to see if Boof can put the ball across the plate and be successful against a good group of patient hitters, and whether or not the Twins can be patient enough to take advantage of Lester's biggest weakness.

Oh yeah, I'll mention that I wrote the Dugout Splinters that will appear in the Minnesota Gameday programs for the Boston series, if that makes you more likely to buy one as you're going to a game this weekend. And if it makes you less likely to buy one...forget I mentioned it.