Categories

Livan Chosen As Mets’ 5th Starter, 1st Eater

When Freddy Garcia is your main competition, well, maybe that's not the most difficult competition to win.

Playing with Fire

Well, you’ve got your diamonds and you’ve got your pretty clothes
And the chauffeur drives your car
You let everybody know
But don’t play with me, ’cause you’re playing with fire

-- Nanker Phelge

On August 1, 2008, the Twins designated Livan Hernandez for assignment and called up Francisco Liriano. Since this move was made after the trading deadline, the Twins had to offer waivers on Hernandez and he was claimed by the Colorado Rockies. The Twins subsequently dropped Hernandez on the defending National League Champions, and the results so far have been predictable. Hernandez was an innings eater, something that may or may not come back to bite the Twins in the wallet, but whatever, he's not what you would call an ace or anything.

Let's compare Livan with the other four starters that comprised the Twins starting staff before he was cut free:

Pitcher IP K/G BB/G HR/G xFIP
Livan 139.7 3.3 1.8 1.10 4.77
Baker 114.3 8.1 2.0 1.38 3.93
Blackburn 144.7 4.8 1.5 0.88 4.42
Perkins 110.7 4.5 2.3 1.04 4.88
Slowey 114.3 6.7 1.4 1.27 4.26

Yep, Livan can go out there, let the game get out of reach, and then pitch another five or six innings. If you can live with losing a lot of games when he's pitching, he can take a helluva a beating and prevent the bullpen from being further strained. So, there's that. Another thing is that his pitching wasn't that much worse than some of these younger starters. But, he's got a $5 million contract with bonuses based on innings pitched that could make it a $7 million contract. Hell, Boof Bonser had pitched better than Livan has (4.51 xFIP), and he's making about a half mil, and he's also been banished to the bullpen.

Let's look at that chart again with mystery player JW added in.

Pitcher IP K/G BB/G HR/G xFIP
Livan 139.7 3.3 1.8 1.10 4.77
Baker 114.3 8.1 2.0 1.38 3.93
Blackburn 144.7 4.8 1.5 0.88 4.42
Perkins 110.7 4.5 2.3 1.04 4.88
Slowey 114.3 6.7 1.4 1.27 4.26
JW 135.7 5.0 2.6 1.03 4.96

Old JW doesn't miss many bats, although he kind of fits in with the Twins starters for most part in that category, he walks a few more than the Twins staff, and his home runs allowed are fairly low, but look at that xFIP -- 4.96. He's also making $10 million this year and next. Of course, he's Jarrod Washburn.

Seattle put Washburn on waivers and the Twins claimed him. Wow, what a risky move. Had Seattle just let him go, Washburn would have been the 7th best starter on the staff -- and he would also have been one of four guys making $10 million plus on the 2009 Twins (the studs Nathan, Morneau, and Mauer being the other three). Honestly, I was sick to my stomach worrying about this from the time I heard that the Twins had made a claim (apparently to block Washburn from going to the White Sox, or at least that's what I've heard) until I found out that he wasn't going to be a Twin.

Apparently, the Twins were in serious talks with the Mariners about Washburn. It should be pointed out that Washburn has sucked for a while -- his 4.96 xFIP is the best he's done in the past five years -- and there's absolutely no reason to believe, at the age of 34 (older than Livan, supposedly) that he'd get any better. The prudent course of action for the Mariners was to unload him to the Yankees at the deadline, but Seattle wasn't interested in that. Apparently, the Yankees weren't interested in Washburn anymore, either, since the Twins won the claim, despite having a better record than the Yankees. At this point, it should have been clear that the market for Washburn was practically non-existent. Merely dumping Washburn on the Twins would have saved the Mariners $13 million. Instead, though, the Mariners thought that they were dealing from a position of strength and wanted the Twins to take on Washburn's salary (which, inexplicably, the Twins were apparently willing to do, WTF, Billy Smith!) AND get this, give up one of their starters.

HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-
HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-
HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-
HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-
HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA

Luckily, the Twins were dealing with fools. Luckily, when the Twins backed away from the table, the Mariners didn't just dump Washburn on the Twins. Tomorrow night, Washburn will be in the Metrodome, but thankfully in a Mariners uniform. The Twins were playing with fire here. Billy, you just about got burned.

In Which SBG Suffers Greatly

My teeth are gritted and I'm strapped into my chair. Time to read a week's worth of columns from the six columnists in town and summarize them for you. I do it because I love you and believe me, it hurts me more than it hurts you.

Grandpa Sports
• On the day of the trading deadline, Sid provides cover for the Twins not making a move, quoting Joe Nathan:

We don't feel like we need help. Everyone is talking about how they've got to make a move, they're going to make a move -- but we're sitting here [1 1/2 games out in the AL Central] right now with the guys we've got. So no one sees the flip side, when you make a move somebody is going to not be able to play.

Of course, that's a company line. The Twins had just lost Alexi Casilla for what looked like the season and they have been scraping it together in the bullpen with Pat Neshek out and Juan Rincon pitching so bad that they released him. Perhaps Joe Nathan likes seeing Brian Bass out there coughing up games. The Twins, at the right price, of course, could easily have been made better. But, Joe's not gonna rock the boat. Says Sid, in his normal quid pro quo, "Well-spoken words by the best closer in the game." Of course, the Twins pretty much immediately dumped Craig Monroe and replaced him with a 30 year old rookie after the deadline, putting the lie to what Nathan was saying

• On Friday, Sid tells us that scouts are really impressed with Justin Morneau. Yep, Justin's pretty good. How good? According to Sid:

Visit with scouts from other teams who watch the Twins, and many believe Justin Morneau has the potential to be one of the great players to ever play in the major leagues.

Jeebus, not even Justin's mother believes that.

• On Saturday, Sid sings the praises of Nick Punto. Yep, Punto is far from the suckitude that he was last year. And yes, he's versatile and does a pretty good job in the field. Sid: "And Punto is having that great year with the bat." For the season, Punto is hitting .285/.335/.396 for an OPS+ of 99. Compared to last year, that's great, but compared to the league as a whole, he's slightly below average. But, hey, compared to that Justin's-got-the-potential-to-be-one-of-the-greatest-ever, this is Punto is great is practically an understatement.

Sid's an amazing guy. He's still plugging out sports columns three or four times a week at the age of 89. That's saying something. But, for goodness sake, the quality of these columns is not much better than the semi-illiterate ramblings of the tortured souls that provide the Strib comments. No self-respecting blogger writes crap like this. Is anyone in charge over at the Strib?

Pat Reusse

• Timing, as they say, is everything. Kevin Slowey pitched a shutout on Monday against the Chicago White Sox and Reusse wrote a column on Tuesday about how Veteran LeaderTM Livan Hernandez gave Slowey some inspiration.

Last time he faced Chicago, Slowey was sitting glumly in front of his cubicle.

Livan Hernandez, the Twins' lone veteran starter, walked over and said: "You know, there are going to be more of these.''

Message: Get over it.

"If you ask me, this little run of good pitching started with what Livan did on Friday night in Cleveland,'' Slowey said. "He got knocked around in the first inning, but when he came in the dugout, you couldn't tell if he had given up four runs or none.

"And then he went back out and threw eight innings. It wasn't a win, but when you watched him react like that ... it was a great lesson for the young starters on this team.''

You know, I get plenty tired of drivel like this. The kid threw a shutout and somehow credit is flung towards the craptastic veteran. Is Slowey so Berting fragile that he's going to fall apart without someone like Livan around? Apparently, the Twins didn't think so -- Hernandez got handed his walking papers this week. They didn't even bother putting him in the bullpen. Apparently, Brian Bass is more valuable in their eyes. Maybe Bass gives a hell of a pep talk.

• What a difference two days makes. On Tuesday, we hear about what a great presence Hernandez is, but on Wednesday, he goes out and stinks it up, handing the White Sox their only win in the four game series. Now, all that veteran leadership is worth a pile of beans.

The distressing part of this clunker from Hernandez was that it came in the Dome, where he had been effective enough to make up for complete futility on the road.

Carlos Quentin whacked him for a home run in the first, another run scored in the third, and then Quentin emptied the bases with a double in the fourth.

Add it up, and Livan went four innings, gave up five runs and 12 baserunners. He has yielded an astounding 199 hits in 139 2/3 innings.

Ten victories in four months made Livan worth the one-year contract, but his looping fastball and soaring curve clearly are fooling fewer and fewer hitters.

The Twins would have to be as stubborn as Tim Pawlenty calling a tax a fee if they were to continue to refuse to supplant Hernandez in the rotation with Francisco Liriano.

It's not ideal to have a rotation with five mostly inexperienced starters, but Livan can't lead the young-uns other than to mediocrity with pitching like this.

Yep, those ten victories were really worth it. Reusse apparently doesn't understand the concept of run support. But, on Thursday, he understands that Livan Hernandez can't pitch effectively at the major league level. I guess the "young-uns" will have to rely on, I don't know, the fucking coaching staff for guidance.

• On Saturday, Reusse looks at the Favre situation. He thinks that Favre would do basically nothing for the Vikings. I don't care about the Vikings and Favre is not the Favre of old, but I do think the Vikings would be better with Brett at the helm.

• On Sunday, Reusse profiled Tom Lehman, who almost won the 1996 U.S. Open, which was played at Oakland Hills, MI, the site of this week's PGA.

Top Jimmy
• On Wednesday, Top Jimmy writes about an exciting, come from behind win against the White Sox. That was a pretty fun win and it drew the Twins to within one-half game. This is a pretty innocuous column, but it does include this puzzler:

Denard Span, the only Twin who can compare to Joe Mauer in quality of at-bats, draws a walk.

It seems to me that Justin Morneau has had some quality at bats, too.

• On Friday, Top Jimmy writes the kind of column that makes me want to wring his pencil neck. He suggests that the Twins should have traded Liriano for Adrian Beltre. I happen to disagree with this idea, and the WGOM Poll earlier this week had no takers for Liriano for Beltre. But, here's the thing. I conducted that poll before the deadline. Top Jimmy wrote his column after the deadline. This kind of column needs to be written before the deadline, or not at all. Leading up to the deadline, Top Jimmy made absolutely no indication that he had any opinion about what the Twins should do. Then, after the deadline, he writes that the Twins should trade the F-Bomb, and he references a two year old DUI as support for his ridiculous idea. Souhan, you are a hack.

• On Saturday, Top Jimmy writes about the Olympic Basketball Team. I don't give a frog's fat ass about Olympic Basketball.

Shooter
• Charley quotes Rich Gannon, who talks about Brett Favre. The whole column is one long quote. Gannon thinks the Vikings would be better off with Tavaris Jackson for a the first half of the season because Favre needs to learn the offense, but then he says, "And in his heart of hearts he knows he's still probably one of the top five quarterbacks in the league. So why wouldn't you come back?" I'm thinking that T-Jack is NOT one of the top five QBs in the league. But, the Vikes are better off with him, anyway. For a while at least.

• Charley tells us that Jerry Bell went to New York to see the two new ballparks being built. Of course, ours is better.

Bell said the Twins' ballpark will have features better than those of Yankee Stadium.

"Our architecture is more unique, more fitting of Minnesota," he said. "The Mets' stadium is more brick and steel, East Coast, which is fine. I don't think that would be right for us, though. We're putting stone on ours now. I like it a lot. It's gorgeous, just gorgeous."

• Charley tells us that the guy who used to be Ken Griffey, Jr. loves to hit against the Twins. I don't know if he knows it, but Griffey's been in the National League for about eight years, where he got old. He does have this little tidbit: "White Sox broadcaster Ken "Hawk" Harrelson said the two "prettiest" baseball swings he has seen in 45 years of organized baseball belong to Griffey and the Twins' Joe Mauer." One wonders if Sid's scouts were talking about Mauer instead of Morneau when they were talking about a potential all-time great.

Tom Powers
I think he's lost at sea. No new columns for almost two weeks.

Bob Sansevere
Jeebus, was it vacation week at the PiP? Sansevere with one offering, an interview with Gary Zimmerman. Zimmerman speaks the truth:

Being elected to the Hall of Fame was actually a surprise. It really shocked me. I figured (former Vikings teammate and guard) Randall (McDaniel) would go because I didn't think they'd take two linemen at the same time. I thought that'd be awesome if we went the same time. It's hard for me to look at myself and say that I had a great career. It's easy for me to say that about Randall. He was the most amazing athlete I saw on the line. I thought for sure he'd be a first-time ballot guy. Maybe it's because he doesn't have a Super Bowl ring. He's got everything but a Super Bowl.

God, what a week. I've been beaten into submission.

Livan, Monroe Kicked to Curb

davidwatts mentioned this in the CoC, but it deserves its own post. Per Joe C., Livan and Monroe are out, Liriano and Ruiz are in.

Game 107: Pale Hosers vs. Twins

Floyd vs. Livan

Commence gnashing of teeth.

Game 102: Twins at Cleveland

Livan vs. Cliff Lee

We're getting to the point where writers start talking about "must-win" series. I don't really believe in must-win situations, though, unless a team would be mathematically eliminated by losing. I've seen too many crazy things happen in my life to believe that a somewhat larger deficit is going to become insurmountable. Less surmountable? Sure. But not insurmountable.

Today's pitching matchup is kind of like that. Cliff Lee is much better at pitching than Livan Hernandez, in essentially every way you could possibly judge pitchers. But even if the Twins don't have an edge on offense (which they do), they could still win this game, because it's just one game and crazy things can happen over the course of one game. It doesn't mean that I like the Twins' chances of winning today, but it's not like I can sit here and tell you that the Twins will certainly lose. Anyone who would say that isn't really worth listening to, anyway.

Game 97: Rangers at Twins

Matt Harrison vs. Livan

If Livan was any other pitcher on the staff, I'd point to his 5.44 ERA, 4.62 xFIP, and .346 BABIP and I would conclude that he's been some combination of unlucky on balls in play and poor defensive support. So that's exactly what I'm going to tell you--Livan's been some combination of unlucky on balls in play and poor defensive support.

I still don't think he was a good deal at $5-7M, but that doesn't mean the man can't be unlucky. And yes, I realize that there's a good chance this could seem silly after the game, given the way that Texas can mash, but that's my story and I'm stickin' with it--Livan's ERA and hits total have been inflated by some combination of luck and poor defense. That doesn't make him great, but he has deserved better so far.

Harrison was projected by PECOTA to be about a replacement level pitcher with a ~5.50 ERA. In particular, he's not too good at missing bats.

Game 91: Twins at Red Sox

ubelmann must have been doing some late night physics equations or something. The starters are Josh Beckett and Livan Hernandez. Looking at that matchup makes the last two losses sting just a little more.

Game 86: Tribe vs. Twins — Independence Day

Byrd v. Livan

Both starting pitchers today have managed to limit their walks allowed quite well, while at the same time being overall crappy pitchers. But some offensive fireworks would be rather appropriate for Independence Day, don't you think?

Game 81: Milwaukee at Minnesota

Sheets Parra vs. Livan

Twins record after 80 games in recent seasons:

42-38 -- 2007
45-35 -- 2006
46-34 -- 2005
43-37 -- 2004
43-37 -- 2003
45-35 -- 2002
49-31 -- 2001
35-45 -- 2000
31-49 -- 1999
38-42 -- 1998

Game 76: Arizona vs. Minnesota

Webb vs. Livan

Webb >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Livan

Game 71: New Washington vs. Relocated Washington

John Lannan vs. Livan Hernandez

How is this for a kick to the nuts?

20.9 VORP -- Cristian Guzman, 2008
0.3 VORP -- Twins SS, 2008

For that matter, Guzman's VORP last year (16.4) was better than Jason Bartlett's (14.7). And he's only making $400K more than Craig Monroe and his -1.1 VORP. Not to mention $800K less than Livan and his -7.7 VORP.

Not that it would have been a fantastic idea to sign Guzman, but it's not like the Twins have found a great replacement for him since he's been gone or even managed to put those extra $16M to great use. Heck, in 2006, it might have been worth $4.2M to have injured Guzman around if it meant no Juan Castro and having Bartlett start the season at SS.

Game 67: Twins at Cleveland

Livan Hernandez vs. Aaron Laffey

You know, I would love for Livan to really be the exception to defense-independent pitching statistics. I would love for him to go out there and use his guile and competitive nature and his veteranness to prevent more runs than you would expect based on his strikeouts, walks, and ground balls. If that happened, two good things would happen: 1) the Twins would win more games and 2) I would learn something. So far, though, Livan's been good for some laughs, but if this is how well he pitches with all of his veteranny wisdom, I'd hate to see what it would look like without all that knowledge.

The good news for today is that Laffey's been nearly as bad as Livan this year. Laffey has just a 4.40 xFIP and Livan has a 4.81 xFIP. Of course, ZiPS had Laffey projected at a 4.55 ERA and Livan projected for a 5.55 ERA, so maybe Livan still has some regressing to do.

Game 62: Minnesota at White Sox

Livan Hernandez vs. Mark Buehrle

Players that I'm happy with so far: Mauer, Morneau, Nathan. (Alexi Casilla gets honorable mention. Even though he's probably playing over his head, he's still young and as a low-cost player could be a real asset to the team if he plays to his abilities.)

Players that I'm not so happy with so far: Delmon, Lamb, Harris. (I guess that doesn't exactly sound like a ringing endorsement of Bill Smith, eh?)

It's kind of weird--this team seemingly has a lot of the same glaring weaknesses in common with that 2006 team: 3B, SS, LF. (Though to be fair, Cuddyer hasn't been a whole lot better than Delmon this year.)

Anyway, LOSINGSTREAKBEGONE!

Game 57: New York at Minnesota

Andy Pettite vs. Livan Hernandez

Livan has been a totally wacky pitcher so far this year. With 24 K's, 13 BB's, and 1 HBP, 89% of the hitters who have faced Livan Hernandez have put the ball in play. The major league average is for 74% of hitters to put the ball in play. Even Nick Blackburn, who is something of a Carlos Silva clone, has only 81% of plate appearances end with a ball in play. There might be a couple of others near 89%, but the only other one I can find without doing an exhaustive search is Carlos Silva's 89% in 2005--when he set the modern record for fewest walks in a season (9).

Livan's had his best GB% since 2004, but his 20.9% LD% is worse than the league average of 18% line drives per ball in play.

Livan's 2.7 K/G is really, really low. How low? From 2004-2007, no qualified pitcher in the AL had lower than 3.3 K/G in a season. Not Carlos Silva, not Chien-Ming Wang, not '05 LimaTime (3.9 K/G.) Only one NL pitcher had a K/G that low--the immortal Kirk Reuter in 2004.

Livan's 1.5 BB/G is also extremely low, and much lower than it's ever been in his career. In the recent past ('04-'07), Livan's best BB/G rate was 3.0. [I had initially been thinking that he was bound to give up a bunch of walks to the Yankees, but the Yankees are 10th in the AL, only barely ahead of the Twins, in walks. So that might not be the biggest problem in the world.]

When you add it all together, he's got a 4.63 xFIP (which almost exactly matches his 4.60 ERA so far) and is a fair bit below the league average of 4.07 this year. It's been a strange trip so far, but Livan might be able to keep it up. (I still wouldn't bet on it, though.)

With three short starts and some extra innings over the last few days, we could really use a long start out of Livan today. So he might wind up throwing until his arm falls off today, even if he's getting pounded. I would love for him to keep the team in the game, though.

Roger Clemens' HGH BFF Andy Pettite will be pitching for the Yankees today. He's been really quite good so far this year, with a league average-ish strikeout rate and about a walk per nine innings better than league average, while inducing a ton of ground balls.

The odds are definitely stacked against the hometown nine today.