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Great Moments in Mini Gameday History – June 16, 2009, inning 6

Rhubarb_Runner June 16, 2009, at 8:57 pm 7 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) ,

gameday

6th inning, no outs: Cuddy exercises extreme focus and concentration in passing up the first three "balls" of the at bat.  Kudos to NewGuy for his extreme concentration in catching it.

Mugshot Purgatory: Corner OFs and Rays

AMR May 29, 2009, at 8:30 am 10 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , , , , ,

Today, we start off with our two leftfielders (D-SPAN2 was considered a centerfielder for my purposes). Jason "the Dude" Kubel is typically the DH, while Delmon "_elm_n" Young has no D and no O.
kubel_jason_2009kubel_jason_2008kubel_jason_2007kubel_jason_2006
young_delmon_2009young_delmon_2008young_delmon_2007young_delmon_2006
(Kubel '09, '08, '07, '06; Young '09, '08, '07, '06)
I don't know how the Dude got his nickname. Could anyone fill me in? I don't know what's up with Del's 2008, it's clearly a photoshop, but I don't know of which year. And it's not like he was traded after '08 pictures were taken, or missed spring training.

Click here to continue reading Mugshot Purgatory: Corner OFs and Rays...

Six Word Player Evaluations: Michael Cuddyer

SBG March 10, 2009, at 5:01 am 26 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , ,

Oops, we missed a day. But, we're back. And it's time to do Michael Cuddyer, the glib, oft-injured, pull a rabbit out of a hat right fielder(?) for the Twins. Here's my offering.

Repeating 2006 would be nice trick.

Add your favorite six word evaluations of Mr. Cuddyer. Please don't add more than four.

Last Friday's poll on Kirby broke this way: the winner was my default entry "And we'll see you tomorrow night." Second place was freealonzo's "Now batting third...Kirrrr Beeee Puckett", which was a creative use of six words. Third was "Hop on my back tonight, boys!"

Today's poll is on Jason Kubel. You can vote for up to FIVE entries.

Select your Favorite Jason Kubel Six Word Evaluations (Max 5)

  • When in doubt, blame the Dude. -- 6%
  • CRACK! Home Run. The Dude Abides -- 13%
  • But for his knees, who knows? -- 23%
  • He abides. Nothing more to say. -- 7%
  • Limited in the outfield range department. -- 6%
  • Dammit, it's not koo-BELL, it's KOO-bell! -- 6%
  • Bite me, Torii. Bite me again. -- 6%
  • Like Bruce Dickinson says, "More Kubel!" -- 21%
  • Likes lefties less than Rush Limbaugh -- 10%
  • He really ties the lineup together -- 25%
  • The Dude abides on broken knee -- 14%
  • Gimpy knees and a powerful bat = Kubel -- 3%
  • Free at last, Free at last.. -- 10%
  • Thank Gardy, I'm free at last -- 7%
  • I'm not as fat as LeCroy -- 17%
  • third best lefty in the lineup -- 4%
  • on one leg, can still rake -- 4%
  • will pass on Arizona Fall League -- 14%
  • What this club needs: More Kubel!!! -- 28%
  • It's just a game, man. -- 1%
  • What the f^(&$# you talking about? -- 1%
  • Swing. Deep drive. Slow trot. Abide. -- 14%
  • lefty: you've got the money, honey -- 0%
  • Buried alive... buried alive... KUUUBELLL!!! KUUUUUUBELLLLLLL!!!!!! -- 3%
  • Third Strike, Bat Still on Shoulder. -- 6%
  • KKKKKKK UUUUUUUU BBBBBBBB EEEEEEE LLLLLLLL !!!!!!!!!!! -- 10%
  • He's the beast from Belle Fourche -- 4%
  • Dude, His Dudeness, Duder, El Duderino. -- 27%
  • He's into the whole brevity thing -- 6%
  • That rug tied the room together. -- 10%
  • Not 'Kubel.' I'm the Dude, man. -- 8%
  • This aggression will not stand, man. -- 18%
  • The Chinaman isn't the issue, Dude! -- -232%

Total Voters: 71

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Casey Blake Is NOT The Answer At Third Base

ubelmann November 8, 2008, at 6:50 pm 9 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , , ,

If I keep hearing rumors like this, I am going to have no choice but to come out of retirement. There are three main reasons that I'm against signing Casey Blake as a free agent.

1) Blake is barely better than a platoon of Harris and Buscher would be, and might be worse.

2) The Twins would need to pay Blake at least as much as they committed to Mike Lamb last offseason.

3) The Twins already have a player with Blake's exact skillset who is five years younger: Michael Cuddyer.

To expound on these points:

1) Let's look at career numbers, which, given everyone's age, should overstate Blake's 2009 abilities compared to Buscher and Harris:

.297/.354/.411 -- Buscher vs. RHP
.266/.330/.436 -- Blake vs. RHP

.295/.360/.440 -- Harris vs. LHP
.258/.345/.478 -- Blake vs. LHP

Now, Blake only takes up one roster spot, so that helps his value compared to the platoon, but looking at various defensive stats, it looks like Blake is probably about as bad as Buscher defensively, maybe worse, and I think certainly worse than Harris is defensively at third.

Blake could also be a decent backup for Morneau at first base, and even give the Twins a viable long-term backup in case Morneau hits the DL, but I'll talk more about this in #3.

2) Paying Blake even $3-5M this year is too much money to commit to him, and with the number of teams that are interested in him, he's going to get multiple years. It's one thing to invest in a 35-year-old player who is a special player, but Blake is not a special player. He's carved out a nice career for himself, but whoever pays Blake is going to be paying for the 31-34-year-old Blake's performance while getting the 35-37-year-old Blake's performance. This is not a good idea for a team that operates under financial constraints.

Going into 2008, PECOTA had Blake with a 21% attrition rate and a 28% collapse rate. Being another year older is not going to help those numbers. For comparison, Lamb was a bigger risk of fail this year: 30% attrition and 39% collapse. Regardless, I don't know why the Twins would want to bother with the risk that they'll have millions tied up in a guy who has a decent chance of falling apart with a limited upside (league average hitter who is a defensive liability.) It's fairly amazing that Blake hasn't fallen apart yet--unathletic guys tend to age poorly--but I don't think the smart money is on him continuing to be decent.

3) Career stats:

.264/.334/.447 -- Casey Blake
.268/.344/.441 -- Michael Cuddyer

Both of them are not good defensive third basemen and fit better defensively as corner outfielders or first basemen. Any mention of Cuddyer of course brings us to the "problem" of Gomez, Span, Delmon, Kubel, and Cuddyer all being outfielders. An equal rotation of five guys into four spots (LF, CF, RF, DH) would give each of them one day off every five days, but eventually one of them is going to get hurt anyway, at which point they become everyday players and I'm not even sure who the OF backup would be at that point. But Gardy could certainly do better than just having them sit out all game on their days off. If Span or Gomez is on the bench to start the game, he could come on for someone as a defensive replacement. If Delmon, Cuddyer, or Kubel is on the bench to start the game, he could come to pinch-hit in a key spot.

Additionally, it seems quite obvious to me that Morneau needs more days off. Or at least more days where he's not in the field. For his career now, Morneau has hit .296/.359/.533 in the first half of the season and .267/.337/.464 in the second half. In the past it may have made sense to keep him on the field because our backup options suck, but if say Cuddyer was going to DH a number of times anyway, then we could instead put Cuddyer on the field at first base and put Morneau at DH, where he gets a little more rest. Neither one of them is a very good fielder, so that doesn't especially make a difference from where I sit. (And while we're talking about days off, it sure seemed like Delmon and Gomez responded well to the occasional day off, so more days off keeping everyone's legs fresh sure seems like a good idea for a team that depends so much on speed.)

On top of that, I really don't know who you'd get rid of. Obviously, there are things I don't like about Delmon's game, but those are obvious to everyone at this point, and I'd rather not sell low on Delmon. Span and Gomez are both cheap and I'd be fine keeping them around. Kubel is limited, but he's pretty good at what he does well (hit right-handed pitching) and I don't think there's a huge market out there for him. Realistically, I can't see the Twins even considering trading Cuddyer, given his clubhouse leader and general good citizen status. Plus, with his injury last year, we'd be selling low on him, too. This isn't a situation like having a can't-miss prospect catcher at the same time your current catcher just had a career year--whatever surplus current exists in the Twins' outfield isn't that much of a surplus and none of these guys are flawless.

To make a final point: WTF do the Twins do with Harris if they sign Blake to be an everyday third baseman? As far as I can tell, giving up on Harris as a third baseman now would be essentially the same as giving up on Blake as a third baseman back in 2003. The Twins can't undo the Blake Mistake, but they can keep from repeating that particular mistake. Harris should only be used in the middle infield in an absolute pinch. He's a corner infielder. He's not a terribly good corner infielder, but he can be mediocre there, and certainly as part of a platoon he can help the Twins out, and while I'd rather have a defensive guy as the backup SS, you could do worse than Harris as your backup SS.

So I really see no reason to spend some of the Twins' precious little money on Casey Blake. Where the Twins really need help is at SS or 2B. Tolbert at SS or 2B is a bigger problem than Buscher/Harris at 3B, and the Twins have only one guy (Casilla) who I would feel comfortable as an everyday player at 2B or SS. Getting more help in the bullpen should also be more of a priority than overpaying a soon-to-be-washed-up third baseman. I would love it if the Twins had more power, but Blake isn't going to make the Twins a better team, so I'm not interested in his power.

Not That Worried About Cuddyer’s Injury

ubelmann August 9, 2008, at 3:16 am 20 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired)

Going into the season, PECOTA projected Cuddyer to be about 12-13 runs above replacement level over the course of the entire season. From 2003-2007, UZR had Cuddyer at -9 runs/150G in right field, and it seems highly unlikely that he's getting any better in the field.

Cuddyer had a very nice 2006 and a decent 2007. Those, however, were his age 27 and 28 seasons, and he might never hit that well again. By EQA, those are the only seasons he's ever been an above average hitter and he plays poor defense in a corner position. There are ways that he could help out the team, and not having him available gives the team less flexibility, but I fear that the Twins don't realize how much his poor defense hurts his value and wouldn't put him in the situations most well suited to his skills.

When you consider offense and defense, the only player the Twins have consistently put on the field who has been well below replacement level is Mike Lamb, and Gardenhire has significantly limited Lamb's role with the team. Since Cuddyer's not much above replacement level, putting him back on the field wouldn't really push anyone out of the way who is significantly worse than him. Additionally, putting Cuddyer back on the field would probably lead to a lot of defensive configurations that are worse than the non-Cuddyer defenses. One way the Twins can make the bullpen less of a problem is to run out a better defense to keep early runs off the board and keep the starting pitchers on the mound longer to eliminate the middle man. This isn't the 2001 Twins--we could use a little extra defense here and there.

I feel for Cuddyer--it really sucks having to sit out due to injury, and he seems to get injured quite a bit, plus he seems like a good guy--but I don't think this is a huge blow to the team's chances of winning.

Better Know A Citizen – ThisIsBeth

Andrew August 7, 2008, at 6:52 am 22 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , , , , , , ,

ColbertName: Beth Miller
Hometown: Buffalo, Minnesota
Town I Currently Live In: St. Louis Park, Minnesota
Profession: Administrator
Bats: Neither
Throws: Like a girl
Positions: Scorekeeper. (In my brief career playing softball for my company team--about 25 games--they usually stuck me in right field. I had two games at catcher, and one game at 3B.)
Greatest Career Achievement in Baseball/Softball/T-ball: I got a hit once!
Hobbies: Sewing (quilts, crafts, and clothes), reading, writing, watching sports
What are you known for around the WGOM? Random appearances?
If you could have a nice, polite dinner with any 3 people - dead or alive - who and why? Ack! I hate these questions! I'm going to limit my answer to people alive, because I pretty much want to talk to anyone with historical significance, whether it be personal, scientific, political, or cultural. And I want to meet with Terry Ryan, Tom Kelly, and Jim Rantz, just to get their perspective on how the Twins organization is going.
If you could pick any 3 people - again, dead or alive - to go out and party (or if you're not the party type, go for martini's or whatever it is you do) who and why? There are so many people, I'm going to pick one group: I'd like to meet with some of the "stars" of baseball from the late 1800's. I'd like to show them what the game is like today, and have them explain differences from how the game was then. As the rules were evolving, I'd like to know how they decided to make the changes.
Sports Allegiances: Twins, Wild, Swarm
Favorite Books: Pride and Prejudice, Hitchhikers' Guide
Favorite Music: Generally pop, but my iPod holds a wide variety
Favorite Baseball Movie: 61* or For the Love of the Game
Favorite Non-baseball Movie: I don't watch a lot of movies, so of the limited ones I've seen, it depends on my mood.
Favorite Food & Drink: For simple pleasures, I really like a good hamburger. I don't drink alcohol. (Which means I watch all these games sober!)
Favorite TV Show(s): I never really watched TV, but I do enjoy The Simpsons.
Favorite Twins Player, historically: Tom Brunansky was my favorite player as a kid, but Kent Hrbek is the all-time favorite.
Favorite Twins Player, currently: Michael Cuddyer and Scott Baker
Best Twins Memory: Someone gave me good tickets to a Twins game for my 12th birthday, and Tom Brunansky hit a walk-off home run! That or Baker's near-perfect game.
Favorite Sport to Play: Tennis
Favorite Sport to Watch: Baseball
If I could live anywhere in the world, I'd live in: Somewhere near enough to attend lots of Twins games.
If I was commissioner for a day, I'd: I'd make Manny Ramirez cut his hair. It annoys me.
If I had Bill Smith's job I'd: I'd completely abuse my position to watch a lot of baseball from some really good seats. I'd like to go to Twins minor league games, but they're so far away (exception: Beloit). As for the work part of the job, I'd make sure all my assistants were giving me full reports from a scouting and statistical view.
Favorite Ballpark: Wrigley Field for the history, Kauffman Stadium for the ballpark
Favorite blogs: WGOM, Aaron Gleeman, Seth Speaks, the Strib/SPPP blogs
What is your take on Conan's discussion with old time baseball players? Absolutely hilarious. That's pretty much what someone with a time machine would look like if they went back in time (except the natives would probably not be so tolerant). I've seen the old-time baseball exhibition they do at the Dome every year, and while it's interesting, I'm really interested in knowing the thought process that went behind the changing of the rules. When did they decide that gloves were a good idea and allowed them (which would change the "catch on one bounce" rule), why did they decide on four balls for a walk, etc.
Why is your Buffalo better than FTLF's Buffalo, NY? I list it as my hometown! My parents property is oddly located with ties to four cities; the address is Buffalo and that's where I went to high school, so I usually go with that.
What kind of writing do you enjoy the most? Honestly, most of my writing these days are just e-mail messages to friends, blog entries, and stuff like that. I don't have the attention span to write anything longer.
Who do you credit with creating your interest in baseball? My parents. My mom loves the Twins because her father loved baseball, and listened to all the Twins games on the radio (he died in 1990), and before that followed the Minneapolis Millers. My dad loves all sports (his mother was a huge football fan; his dad didn't care about sports).

Map time!

2008 Game 40: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins

ubelmann May 15, 2008, at 10:30 am 280 LTEs - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) , , , ,

Dustin McGowan vs. Glen Perkins

It's a nooner!

I haven't written a whole lot about the Twins' injuries so far this season. There are a couple of reasons for that:

1) I have no special insight into how healthy these players are.

2) They haven't been especially beset by injuries.

They're about 1/4th of the way through the season, and Cuddyer's been the only significant injury I count amongst the position players, the bullpen has seen one really major injury, and the rotation has had two DL-worthy but not season-ending injuries.

To get an idea about injuries and the rotation, we can note that there have been at least 200 different pitchers so far this season to pitch at least one game. That's 6.7 pitchers per team. The Twins have had 7 pitchers start a game so far this season, so they're right around the league average in that. It's a bit more difficult to get a rough estimate about bullpen and position player injuries because some teams carry more pitchers than others, but I really doubt the Twins have been hit all that hard in those areas.

Injuries are awful, and not being able to play has to kill those guys, but every team deals with it, but the Twins haven't been especially burdened by injuries so far.

That said, the Blue Jays have been pretty fortunate with their pitching health so far, and all of their pitchers are qualified for the ERA title right now. Let's check out xFIP for all qualified pitchers for Toronto and Minnesota:

2.88 -- Halladay
3.55 -- Marcum
3.65 -- Litsch
4.09 -- Burnett
4.15 -- McGowan
4.33 -- Blackburn
4.42 -- Bonser
4.62 -- Livan

McGowan is arguably the Blue Jays' worst starter, but has still done better so far than the three Twins pitchers who have stayed healthy. (For reference: Baker is at a 3.06 xFIP and Slowey is at a 3.71 xFIP, so getting them back in the rotation regularly could be a significant boost to the rotation.)