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It's Nick Punto Day. Okay. Well then. When I'm lying in my bed in the old folks home and I can't remember whether it was Jack Morris or Frank Viola that won Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, I'll remember Nick Punto. Specifically, I'll remember what an idiot he was to slide into first base. I'll remember his 2007 season, when a hot streak in September got him over the Mendoza line and prevented him from having the lowest seasonal VORP total for a Twin (well, I might not remember exactly that). I'll remember his inability to lay down a successful sacrifice bunt. I'll remember his ridiculous base running error in the 2009 playoffs, when he relied on crowd noise to determine whether the ball got past Derek Jeter. And my roommate will despair as I cry out in a full throated wail, "Effing Punto!" or some such epithet. I don't expect that it will be pleasant for anyone.
Below are some contributions from the WGOM Nation on Mr. Punto. Enjoy. And then vote for your favorite.
Which Citizen Captured the Essence of Nick Punto?
- #1 -- 12%
- #2 -- 5%
- #3 -- 7%
- #4 -- 7%
- #5 -- 0%
- #6 -- 7%
- #7 -- 10%
- #8 -- 5%
- #9 -- 3%
- #10 -- 0%
- #11 -- 3%
- #12 -- 41%
Total Voters: 86
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Citizen #1
Gardy’s love for Punto is making me numb
O sure, his fielding is as tight as a drum
But he can’t bunt for a lick
Plus he lacks pop in his stick
And Lord his sliding into first is just plain dumb!
Citizen #2
Nick Punto is an excellent defensive utility infielder. Unfortunately the Twins play him as a starting infielder and expect him to hit. If he could learn to bunt, and not headfirst slide into first base, he'd be a great guy to have on the bench in later innings when holding onto a lead. As it is, we're paying (and playing) him too much for the awesome Web Gems.
Citizen #3
Pointless slides at first
Looking like he tries so hard
Perfect whipping boy
Citizen #4
Nick Punto is a guy that seems impossible to judge. So much of what he has brought to the Twins over the last 6 years have filled the whole spectrum from awesome to putrid. On the surface he has those traits in a player we were all raised to respect; gritty, versatile, fundamendatly sound, good defense, hustle. However as we we look closer (and get older and more cynical) we see that maybe some of that hustle is fake, that sliding into first base is not faster and in fact slower, and for all the talk of fundamentally sound he's just not a very good bunter, and no amount of grit covers up being bad at baseball, etc. Nick was great at 3rd base during the 100+ game run in 2006. He was pretty good at shortstop during the Twins run that fell just short in 2008. But, man was 2007 ugly. I feel I get in arguments standing up for LNP and bashing him in the same week. I guess in the end, I'll remember the positives, a big grand slam he hit at the Dome in 2004, coming home to get a possible go ahead run in game163 (even though at the time I was screaming to turn 2), the big hits he got in Chicago late in 2006, the barehanded webgems where he's just begging to break a rib as he flings himself around the Metrodome turf. And I'll try not to remember that dreadful 2007 season when he threatened to bury the negative VORP number where its never gone before and I would heckle opposing outfielders with chants of "YOU'RE WORSE THAN PUNTO!". He is what he is, a pretty flawed player who has carved out a somewhat long Twins career with a lot of ups and downs but the team has experienced plenty of regular season success. I guess I tip my cap to Nicky, you can't seem to keep him down. And if the organization is going to honor Greg Gagne into its Hall of Fame clearly we've lowered our standards enough to say "Punto isn't awful, he's serviceable"
Citizen #5
The J.D. Drew of Minnesota.
Citizen #6
Despite the awful baserunning gaffe to end the Twins' season, I was very impressed with Mr. Punto's work at the plate over the final week or so of the season. The Twins could have been eliminated in any of the final four scheduled games of the regular season plus the one-game tiebreaker. Over these games and the three games of the playoffs, Punto has 33 plate appearances and hit .333/.485/.375/.860. He saw an average of 4.8 pitches per appearance. I think he was batting as well as I have ever seen him bat. Nothing outstanding, but wearing down opposing pitchers with multiple fouls and taking a lot of pitches. See a full breakdown at this link:
http://stickandballguy.com/blog/2009/10/12/nick-puntos-last-eight-games/
There are times when Nick Punto can be frustratingly bad at batting, hitting high fly balls that he's not strong enough to get out of the park (or even over the outfielders), or swinging and missing at high
fastballs. But when he's on like he was at the end of the season, he's using the talents he does have to his advantage. See pitches, get on base. If he can keep up with this strategy (and sticking to his strengths is not one of his strengths), I'd be very happy seeing him get the majority of the starts at 3b.
Oh, and I think he's pretty good with the glove, and loses his head too easily when he's baserunning.
Citizen #7
I want to preface this by saying that I'm a fairly new-ish fan of the Twins and baseball in general. I started listening to the Twins on the radio fairly regularly back in 2002, 2003 and truly started following the team in 2006. So I am not an expert on baseball, and my understanding of the game is still growing. That being said, I have very strong opinions on Little Nicky Punto. I think that for me, and most other Twins fans, my issues with Nick Punto are mostly based on Gardenhire's insistence on playing him as much as he does. Admittedly in many cases we haven't had a better option, but I think in all of those cases the "no better option" is really the fault of the front office, so I don't think that's an excuse. Punto is a good to great utility man and defensive replacement. Watch him penciled into the lineup card every single day, though, is a little frustrating. Almost as frustrating as watching him try to lay down a bunt. Or making a nice, crisp throw from the hole at short to first base. Yuck.
I could go on, but I imagine plenty of other people will make the other points I would make. So, I'm going to basically sum up my feelings on Nick Punto with a story.
After the frustrating end to the 2006 season, I was totally excited for baseball in 2007. I decided, to fuel my excitement, I would attend in my first Twins Winter Caravan. The Twins on my leg of the Caravan were Joe Nathan and the man of the hour, Nick Punto. I had a good time, and was very excited for the season. After the presentation, I decided I would get in the endless autograph line. I waited for about two hours, but I got to shake the hands of two Twins! I was 24 years old, but I was excited as a little kid. I got Nicky to sign a ball, and I got Joe to sign a ball.
The next day at work, I told a girl who sat across from me about going to the Caravan after being asked how my night was. She seemed disappointed that she didn't know about it, as she would have taken her son. I promised that in 2008 when they came back, I would let her know when it was. When she asked me which players were there the previous night, she seemed deflated. She then told me her son's favorite Twin was #8. My first thought was a sudden thought of WHY!? and my second thought was to tell her I'd bring the ball I got signed to work the next day, and she could give it to her son. She said that I didn't really have to. I insisted that it wasn't a big deal. Since it wasn't.
This past April, I was at my boss/friend's wedding, and this girl, who had quit years earlier, was there. I didn't recognize her at first, but we chatted for a while and caught up. She then asked me if I remember giving her son the Nick Punto signed baseball.
Up until that moment I had completely forgotten about giving him the ball, and in fact, that Nick had even been at the Caravan that year.
I think that sums up my feelings on Nick Punto.
Citizen #8
Enigma of North
Nick Punto, the Nick Punto
Run through the damn bag
Watching every day
results in so much contempt
Punto: not that bad
Like 6th grade Spanish
Punto sounds like a bad word
it could be much worse
In comparison
A man, a plan, Panama
Nick Punto makes sense.
Dave Cameron likes
Nick Punto more than Kubel
Why do I read them?
Citizen #9
Little Nick Punto
Our Tiny Superhero
Cannot bunt a lick
LNP-3B?
At least we don't have to suffer
Tony Batista again
Batgirl taught us all
of unicorns and heroes.
Nicky, please don't slide!
A kitten is sav'd
Every time our Nicky
Runs through first base bag
Who needs Eckstein here?
We have a super hero
call'd Nicky Punto
Citizen #10
"Out"
I saw the small infielder of the Twins run towards first, gritty maddening dirty,
Throwing himself onto the brown dirt at first looking to be called safe;
Heavy-headed spectators burning with the repeated infernal frustration
Of the spacey scrubini of the middle infield.
Citizen #11 Note: Today is the anniversary of Abe Lincoln's birth.
Lil' Nicky Punto
Shares nothing in common with
Abraham Lincoln
Pariah Punto
Last surviving piranha
Headfirst dives, can't bunt
There once was a scrubini named Punto
Who never could learn to bunt-o.
With his uni and hair mussed
He leaves WGOMers nonplussed,
While Gardy just says "Bingo, bango, bongo."
Citizen #12 Note: two stories here of considerable length. Fevered!
My grandfather had a saying. It went something like, “If an angry bear attacks you, don’t cower in fear, don’t run away, stand up and fight it. Kill it quickly, and kill it knowing that you are doing it for the right reasons.”
I remember the first time he told me this. I was about eight years old, and had just gotten home from a game. I had pitched, and we had lost. Badly.
“When you kill that bear, you will become stronger. You will become a better man.”
I didn’t get it. I watched Wild America all the time on television, and I loved the bears they showed. My favorite was always when they would wait by a waterfall and pluck salmon out of midair as they swam up the current. I tried to imagine myself running up and stabbing a bear with a sword as it munched on a fish. Why would I want to kill an innocent animal? I wouldn’t.
I looked at grandpa and rolled my eyes.
“I’m not gonna kill a bear.”
He ruffled my hair.
“Sure you will.”
In high school I noticed that scouts were showing up at some of my games, talking to the coaches, clicking stopwatches, writing notes in tiny note pads. One day I saw my grandfather in the stands, talking to one of the scouts. I asked him afterwards what they had talked about.
“Baseball, mostly.”
“Come on grandpa, I’m serious. Did he say anything about me?”
“He said when the bear comes, to kill it.”
“Quit joking around, just give me a yes or no answer.”
He tried to ruffle my hair, but I pushed his hand away.
I went through an angry phase my senior year. My grades slipped. My batting average dropped. I came home in a police car one night. My mom asked my grandfather to have a talk with me.
“Nick, the bear is coming. He’s pissed off. And you are running.”
He placed a hand on my shoulder.
“He’s not going to stop chasing you. He will chase and chase, and he’s not the only bear out there. There will be more in the future, and they will all come after you. But you can kill them, Nick, and if you kill this one bear now, you will know that you are strong enough to face the next one.”
“Damn the bear,” I said in anger.
“Damn the bear,” he gently repeated.
I went to summer school. I lifted weights. I hit doubles and stole third.
Damn the bear.
I went to college. I lifted weights. I hit triples and stole home.
Damn the bear.
The scouts were at my games again, and this time they came to me directly. They made small talk about my classes and grades, dancing around my batting average and 40-yard dash. The Phillies liked me, they said. The Phillies loved me.
My grandfather was there on draft day. He ruffled my hair.
“I killed it,” I said, drunk with joy, “I killed the bear.”
“Yes you did, Nick,” he said, “but there will be others.”
There were others. Damn them all. I laughed in their faces. The life of a minor leaguer is beset with bears of all sizes, but down they went. Damn them all. I climbed my way to the major leagues up a mountain of bloody claws, fat, and fur.
I will never forget the day I was traded to Minnesota. I was visiting with my grandfather in California, dropping off a few signed bats for the neighborhood kids. We sat in the backyard, facing the mountains.
He ruffled my hair, and asked me how many bears I had killed.
“All of them,” I smiled.
He winked at me, and raised his glass of scotch.
“Sometimes it’s okay to let a just few of them get you.”
There was a crash from the neighbor’s yard, then a scream. There was a crash in our yard. There was a scream.
A bear, a grizzly, fully mature, eight feet tall and thousands of pounds, had smashed through the fence. Its muzzle was slick with fresh blood, its claws clotted with torn flesh. It was a killer.
“My God!” my grandfather shouted.
The bear reared on its hind legs and roared. I moved between my grandfather and the bear, silent for one tense moment. I looked down at my hands, realizing that they held one of the bats. Solid maple, the ol’ Louisville Bear-Slugger. The bear roared again, shattering the silence, splattering the lawn with gore.
“Get out of here!” I heard a voice shout me. “For God’s sake, run away!”
I couldn’t tell who was talking, or who they were talking to. All I could see was the bat in my hands and the murderous beast before me. It was only a matter of time before the great thing charged. I gripped the bat so tightly that my hands ached.
My name is Nick Punto and I play baseball for the Minnesota Twins.
Here's the second offering from Citizen #12.
We was dead men in that Lowry tunnel, we knowed it too. We all knowed. Trapped like rats with greycoats at both ends, smell of burned up bodies make us all go crazy, sound of greycoat laughin make us wet ourselves. Pincy start prayin pretty early and that set us all off makin our testaments. Not Nicky though. Nicky ain’t never set down his gun from his shoulder. When we was all down on our knees cryin all pathetic, good Lord why won’t you save us, Nicky just click a clip into place.
405th light dragoons, the brokest-ass company ever scraped up in the war, all stringy hoppers and freak orphans, and Nicky. Ain’t even in our platoon, just wandered by. All us bottled up under Lowry, with them greycoats ain’t even bother to make a move. They just sit back laughin, drinkin blood, starvin us out or waitin on us to suicide charge. We all broke down and pray with Pincy and Hassan and Moua, pray to whatever, I ain’t even know. Nicky mouth some words but keep both eyes down that barrel, wait for what he knowed was comin.
Pincy ask him, “What you doin here? Who are you?” Ain’t give no real answers, just say he follow a greycoat company from across the river. Say he kill a greycoat for his gun, and kill eight more til they chase him. He got that look in his eye we all seen. He all alone til he find us cowards in Lowry tunnel.
Pincy ask him, “What you do before?” Nicky just shake his head, like it don’t matter anymore. It don’t, but Pincy wanna know.
“Baseball,” Nicky finally say.
The greycoats charge at both ends. Nicky and that greycoat gun keep shootin, Moua and Hassan shootin too, Olafson and Juarez lose it and start runnin at the greys, me crouched down can’t even find the trigger my eyes shut so tight. Pincy next to me holdin my head prayin.
Blood drinkin greycoats scream when they charge, but scream too when they dyin. Nicky had em all screamin. Ain’t nobody shoot so fast as he. He empty that greycoat gun in seconds, reach down and grab my carbine right out my hands and keep shootin.
At the end of it Nicky was standin up over us like a king. Moua was dead, Olafson and Juarez dead too. Pincy shot real bad. Nicky just stand there, covered in greycoat blood and steamin like a newborn calf. Greycoats all piled up everywhere, Hassan walkin round pickin up their guns. We all knowed they gonna charge again, ain’t gonna stop chargin til we dead. Nicky still standin real quiet with his eyes closed and a smile on his face.
“Why you smiling?” Pincy ask, slumped over with all the greycoat bullets in his gut. “What you thinking bout?”
Nicky don’t even open his eyes, just let his smile get wider and wider.
“Baseball,” he finally say.
ubelmann  November 12, 2009, at 12:00 pm  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Defensive Statistics, Nick Punto, UZR
In the same spirit as my post on Denard Span's defense, let's take a look at Nick Punto's defense. He also has performances at different positions that don't make a whole lot of sense. To wit:
+3.9 UZR/150G -- 2B
+19.9 UZR/150G -- 3B
+18.1 UZR/150G -- SS
Typically 2B and 3B who switch off between positions play them relatively evenly and 2B/3B/SS who switch off between positions play SS about 5 runs per season worse than the other positions. But here we see Punto scoring much worse at 2B than 3B, even though they should be relatively equally demanding, and just as good at SS as 3B, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.
Punto is in an interesting situation, similar but different from the one that Span is in. Punto has well over 3 full seasons of UZR data to draw from (594 defensive games is roughly 4 full seasons), but he doesn't have close to 3 full seasons at any one position (208 games at 2B is well short of the 450 games in 3 full seasons.)
I do believe that infield is a materially different situation than the outfield in that all outfield positions require essentially the same set of skills in more or less the same ratios, whereas different infield positions require infielding skills in different ratios. However, just using the data, it seems to me that you'd need at least three seasons of data at each position to really establish any kind of certainty that a player is, say, an elite shortstop but only a so-so second baseman. And thinking about Punto's tools, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me that he'd be rated so much higher at SS than at 2B, or so much higher at 3B than at SS. He's got a strong arm and pretty sure hands. He is also a pretty decent runner, though I don't see him as having necessarily the best first step in the world. Which wouldn't necessarily make him a great third baseman, but should make him a pretty good middle infielder, though I can see no reason that he should be better at SS than 2B. (And even if you see his tools differently, I can't imagine a combination that makes him good at SS and 3B but not at 2B.)
So with all that said, I'm going to assume that Punto is in fact equally good (compared to league average) at 2B and 3B, and 5 runs/season worse at SS than at 2B/3B. Under these assumptions, we can normalize all of his fielding data against a league-average 2B (since I see that as his most likely position next year) and see what it all adds up to.
+3.9 UZR/150G, 5.2 UZR, 208 G -- 2B
+19.9 UZR/150G, 25.4 UZR, 192 G -- 3B normalized to 2B
+23.1 UZR/150G, 29.9 UZR, 194 G -- SS normalized to 2B
------------------------------------------------------------------------
+15.3 UZR/150G, 60.5 UZR, 594 G -- All IF positions normalized to 2B
I won't do a regression to the mean here in the way that I did with Span because the data all combined together is more than three season's worth of data.
That makes Punto roughly a +15 runs/season fielder at 2B or 3B, and a +10 runs/season fielder at SS, at least if we're using UZR as our inputs. I believe that other systems don't rate him as highly, but this data doesn't strike me as being outrageous. If you thought he was more like +10 at 2B/3B and +5 at SS, I wouldn't blame you, but I think it's fairly clear that he's an above-average up-the-middle defender, which definitely has value. (And if you find him difficult to stomach because of his headfirst slides into first base and boneheaded bunt attempts, I also wouldn't blame you.)
AMR  October 12, 2009, at 10:01 pm  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Nick Punto, Twins Offense
So, before the boneheaded baserunning last night, I had been quite impressed with Nick Punto’s batting the past eight games or so (since the Twins have faced elimination). Seemed he was taking tons of pitches and getting on base a lot. So I thought I’d look up the actual numbers.
I’ve never done any actual analysis… this is just a description of what happened. I’m not sure if it’s really that good or not. Something I thought I’d throw out there for comments. Click here to continue reading Nick Punto’s Last Eight Games...
Rhubarb_Runner  August 30, 2009, at 8:45 pm  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) C. J. Wilson, Nick Punto

What the heck -- it's been a while since we had one of these. Surprise of surprises, LNP puts down a beautiful suicide squeeze and beats it out for a single. Unfortunately, now the scouts know where not to pitch him in the future in bunt situations -- right at the kneecaps.
(btw, this was the key play in the rally, as we all know.)
ubelmann  July 15, 2009, at 12:59 am  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins, Nick Punto, PrOPS
First, LD% for everyone's favorite SS, Nick Punto:
21.5% -- 2005
23.6% -- 2006
14.5% -- 2007
20.5% -- 2008
20.1% -- 2009
Anyone care for a game of "which of these things is not like the other?"
If Punto keeps getting line drives the way that he has been, he's the most likely hitter on the Twins to improve on his first-half OPS. His PrOPS of .713 is .170 points higher than his actual OPS of .543, the biggest such difference on the team. The main difference is that judging by the line drives he's put in play, you'd expect him to hit about .263, but he's only hit .201 so far. That in turn effects both his OBP and his SLG.
There are five Twins with a worse PrOPS than Punto right now: Harris, Gomez, Tolbert, Young, and Casilla. Unsurprisingly, I've uncovered all of our middle infielders in one fell swoop.
In all of baseball, there are 13 qualified shortstops who had a better first-half PrOPS than Punto. 13 SS over 29 teams.
Do I think that Punto is the 14th-best shortstop in baseball? Absolutely not. But Punto's the same guy we thought he was going into the season. This isn't like his 2007 slump where he just stopped hitting line drives altogether and his GB% shot way up. Shortstop is a really tough position to fill and anyone who is a worthwhile upgrade over Punto is going to cost a ton of talent, talent that we might not be able to afford to give up.
On the flip side of the PrOPS story, Joe Mauer's OPS is .109 points higher than his PrOPS. So he's been lucky to get where he's been so far, which, as much as anything else, is why it is silly to seriously talk about .400 yet. His PrOPS is still 4th-best in the AL, so it's not like he's been bad or anything, in fact he's been great. But I'm not expecting this to continue.
I know, I know, betting on regression to the mean is like betting on the house to win in Vegas, but those are the sorts of wagers that are in my bones.
SBG  May 30, 2009, at 2:00 pm  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins, Nick Punto, Tampa Bay Rays
Francisco Liriano (11th Start, 54.7 IP, 4.96 xFIP) v. David Price (2nd Start, 3.3 IP, 5.44 xFIP)
It's the erstwhile phenom against the current phenom today. Liriano has been disappointing so far in 2009, for sure. In 2008 after a slow start and a trip to the minors, Liriano came back and acquitted himself quite well in the second half, giving hope that he'd take a step forward this year. So far, though, he's not pitched well and the results have been even worse. If Jim Souhan were the manager, he'd be pitching for his job today. I'm a little more sanguine about the prospect of Liriano improving as the season rolls along. Just don't take a lot more time putting it together, Francisco.
The Twins put Nicky Poo on the DL last night and called up Laddie. Lately, there's been a lot of teams putting guys on the DL because they sucked more than anything. I'm not sure if Punto is hurt, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's nursing a bad bat right now. A rehab trip to Rochester in the offing? Maybe, especially if Laddie comes up and proves that his head isn't jammed up his butt.
I'm not optimistic about today, primarily because the Twins are 5-15 on the road and 0-fer in AL East parks. Then again, maybe the clock has struck twelve in St. Petersburg and can have a reversal of fortune today.
Go Twins!
SBG  May 29, 2009, at 10:03 pm  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto
Punto on the DL with a bad bat groin.
AMR  May 8, 2009, at 8:30 am  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) 90x135, Alexi Casilla, Luke Hughes, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Seattle Mariners, Trevor Plouffe
SBG  March 2, 2009, at 6:00 am  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Nick Punto, Six Word Player Evaluations
It's Monday and time for another edition of Six Word Player Evaulations. The first evaluation was that of Joe Mauer. The results are in and the winning six word evaluation of Joe Mauer is: "He ain't Jesus, but close enough." I set up a page for this silliness here. You can track the top three vote getters for each of the polls as they come up.
With Mauer out of the way and the vote about to start with Justin Morneau, I thought it was time to head in a different direction and take on Mr. Nick Punto. Nicky had a breakout 2006, which netted him a 2 year deal. He sucked air seriously in 2007 and seemed headed for the door. But, he was better in 2008 and has now been rewarded with a pretty handsome deal. So, my candidate six word evalutation of Nick Punto is:
Might start sliding on his wallet.
Go ahead and add yours. Please limit your selections to four at the most. You'll see that there were a ton of offerings for Justin Morneau... if this picks up steam, it might take a day just to put the poll together! Go ahead and vote for up to SEVEN of the Morneau choices.
Pick Your Favorite Justin Morneau Six Word Evaluations (Max 7)
- 2006 MVP, but third best Twin. -- 17%
- Corey Koskie looks like his dad -- 4%
- Doubles increase, homers decrease: Twins baseball! -- 15%
- Ubelmann thinks that his defense sucks -- 9%
- Mountie meltdown in September, Jesus Saves. -- 9%
- Jason Morneau is your Derby Champ -- 25%
- only hope to hit Subway sign -- 8%
- I'm really sorry about last September -- 9%
- Rhymes with Porno. Suck it Torii! -- 24%
- I will always love Todd Bertuzzi -- 3%
- A hunk of Canadian Timber, eh -- 13%
- ESPN says Jason? then its Jason! -- 4%
- Lumbering Canuck, comes wielding his axe. -- 12%
- Good hitter, bizarre hold on voters -- 8%
- Why are Twins' stars so boring? -- 4%
- RBI equal MVP votes--even today -- 3%
- Long-term contract, Target's first icon? -- 7%
- When I'm not afflicted, I mash! -- 4%
- When on field, Robot I become. -- 4%
- Another Canadian Club: Justin Go Boom! -- 19%
- Stripper wife. Twins MVP. Life's good. -- 20%
- Sheenie was my very first fan. -- 0%
- Draw in dirt at first base. -- 3%
- Ya' know? Ya' know? Ya' know? -- 1%
- I Thought Sheenie Was His Girlfriend? -- 7%
- Huge exhale with contact, that's gone! -- 1%
- Gotta love the helicopter HR followthrough. -- 9%
- Mauer's ex-roomie; who's cookin' breakfast, eh? -- 7%
- Bite me, Hamilton - bite me, Torii. -- 11%
- Superior Torii slug-dodging; sorry, Nicky -- 1%
- Secretly wish I was Patrick Roy -- 19%
- MVP? Just look at those ribbies, maaaaaaan -- 4%
- Needs Punto to take his punches -- 8%
- Insert random "Jason Morneau" joke here -- 3%
- Good, but where are his intangibles? -- 7%
- Torii? Cue the "Street Fighter" music -- 1%
- Sweet bat, 'meh' glove, good times -- 3%
- Canadian lumber: you've seen him run. -- 20%
- Ha - Mil - Ton! Ha - Mil - Ton! -- 3%
- Jacks Homers; Blue Ox Looks On -- 7%
- Dudley Do-Right with bat and glove -- 12%
- M-V-P, Not a G! -- 4%
- Justin Morneau rocks my socks off! -- 4%
- Derby winner, still came in second -- -256%
Total Voters: 75
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ubelmann  December 31, 2008, at 4:57 pm  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) 2009, Aaron Miles, Brendan Harris, Casey Blake, Mark DeRosa, Minnesota Twins, Nick Punto, Replacement Level, UZR
per ESPN:
DeRosa has been traded to the Cleveland Indians for minor league pitchers Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer and John Gaub. DeRosa will likely slide into Cleveland's opening at third base.
I'm sure this will irk fans who long for the Twins to do something and especially those who would like the Twins to add someone they've heard of before, but DeRosa wouldn't really be a significant upgrade.
In related infielding news, the Cubs signed Aaron Miles. Elsewhere, I've seen the total value of the contract listed at 2 years/$4.9M.
For these two infielders, some internal options, and other names we've heard this offseason, let's look at projected wOBA (as determined by Marcel the Monkey), and career OPS+.
.394 wOBA, 147 OPS+ -- A-Rod
.350 wOBA, 97 OPS+ -- DeRosa
.335 wOBA, 105 OPS+ -- Blake
.329 wOBA, 97 OPS+ -- Harris
.323 wOBA, 93 OPS+ -- Buscher
.308 wOBA, 77 OPS+ -- Miles
.299 wOBA, 74 OPS+ -- Punto
.290 WOBA, 67 OPS+ -- Cesar Izturis
DeRosa's a little younger than Blake, which is likely the main reason his projected wOBA is better than Blake's. DeRosa has been much better than his career averages over the last three years, which is likely the main reason that his projected wOBA is better than Harris'.
First we see that none of the non-Rods are elite hitters and Punto isn't so bad when you compare him to other guys who have gotten similar 2-year deals this offseason. If we're considering these guys as potential full-time players, let's look at how many runs above average their wOBA would make them over 550 PA:
29.7 -- A-Rod
8.6 -- DeRosa
1.4 -- Blake
-1.4 -- Harris
-4.3 -- Buscher
-11.5 -- Miles
-15.8 -- Punto
-20.1 -- Izturis
DeRosa is better at the plate than Harris and Buscher, by maybe about one win over the course of the season. Then it becomes a matter of how well everyone can field. Defensive stats are a bit of a mess for a number of reasons, but let's take a look at career UZR per 150 games at third base for these guys. There are definitely sample size issues here, and I don't think all of these ratings make sense, but it will give us a place to start the conversation.
18.7 -- Punto
8.2 -- Izturis
0.9 -- A-Rod
??? -- Miles
-3.4 -- Blake
-4.1 -- DeRosa
-12.8 -- Buscher
-18.3 -- Harris
First things first--I think that Punto's rating and Harris' rating are each too extreme. No one else seems to rate Punto that high at 3B and I would guess that he's closer to a +10 defender at 3B. Harris, on the other hand, has started only 39 career games at 3B, so there are extreme sample size issues with that number. UZR has him as a -3.9 runs/150G defender at 2B and a -9.9 runs/150G defender at 3B. Compared to other metrics, I think that's generous, but given his tools and the information from 200 games started at 2B/SS, I think it's reasonable to expect that Harris can be a -5 defender at 3B. Optimistically, I would guess he's average and pessimistically, I think -10 is about right at 3B.
Taking those things into consideration, and rounding to emphasize that these are rough measures, here is how I would rate those players as defenders at third base, in runs above average:
10 -- Izturis
10 -- Punto
0 -- A-Rod
0 -- Miles
-5 -- Blake
-5 -- DeRosa
-5 -- Harris
-10 -- Buscher
Using those defensive estimates, we get, for overall value at third base, in runs above average:
30 -- A-Rod
4 -- DeRosa
-4 -- Blake
-6 -- Punto
-6 -- Harris
-10 -- Izturis
-12 -- Miles
-14 -- Buscher
Of the group, I also have the least confidence in Buscher since he had an awfully weak history before the last couple of years and I'm most concerned about his defense, which could very well be worse than -10.
The more I look at it, the more I would lean towards making Harris the full-time 3B, with Buscher playing against tough right-handed pitchers or when we're not as concerned about infield defense. Harris seems more or less to be Casey Blake from 6-8 years ago, and we doesn't cost us anything to acquire him.
I think DeRosa would have been an upgrade. But he would have been a small upgrade, and for an extra $5.5M in salary, plus giving up more talent than the Indians gave up. I'm not sure at all about how good those minor league pitchers are (I suspect they aren't very good), but I'm sure that they have some value. $5.5M and low-value prospects are more than I would have given up for one extra win.
The Twins did a lot last offseason, and they did have done very little this offseason, but given their performances in 2007 and 2008, I think that makes sense. In 2007 we had a number of below-replacement-level performances. Upgrading from awful to mediocre is the easiest kind of improvement that you can make.
In 2008, a big reason that the Twins improved is that they had barely any below-replacement-level performances. Monroe and Everett, for instance, were annoying, but as a group they were only as far below replacement level as Darnell McDonald, Matt LeCroy, and Chris Heintz were (as a group) for the Twins in 2007. Mike Lamb was all kinds of fail this year (especially when you include his glove), but that's nothing compared to the devastation that Rabe, Garrett Jones, Luis Rodriguez, Rondell White, Alexi Casilla, and Nick Punto brought us the year before.
All totalled, the Twins improved from -76 runs in below-replacement-level performance in 2007 to just -19 runs in below-replacement-level performance in 2008. That's a 5-6-win improvement in just replacing your worst players with barely adequate players. That's very nearly as good as the difference between A-Rod and a replacement-level third baseman.
I think that's a pretty overlooked part of the '07 to '08 improvement, but it also means that we've more or less exhausted the cheap and easy ways to improve the team--at least in position players. We ought to be scouring the waiver wires and looking for interesting NRIs to shore up the bullpen and rotation depth. Even there, I don't know how much you can realistically expect improvement. On results, Bonser sucked last year, but I suspect he'll be at or above replacement level this year. Bass was also bad, but he wasn't even below replacement level based on runs allowed--so I wouldn't expect for miracles in improving the bullpen.
The Twins have a roster that can be substantially improved for 2009 in three main ways:
1) Fleece someone in a trade
2) Trade future value for present value
3) Spend $$$$ to improve spots where we are okay but not great
The first option always sounds great, but you can't always depend on deals with suckers to come through. The second option probably doesn't make sense for the Twins because money is a very scarce resource for them and prospects usually costs less money than players you would acquire in a trade. The third option doesn't work because we're not lucky enough to be sitting on a 25-million-resident gold mine.
I didn't really plan on coming back to this, but here I am again. For as much as some people want to be delusional about the advantage that the Yankees have, it's ridiculous to think that small-revenue teams like the Twins aren't at a significant disadvantage compared to large-revenue teams when it comes to assembling their roster. I can hope that the Twins can turn fool's gold into gold, but it's not reasonable to expect that, and I see no obvious, significant upgrades for this team.
Terry Ryan built the basis for this team by being patient and not trading the future for one wild run at a ring. Bill Smith would be wise to follow that precedent. Our offseasons are bound to be boring not because of our management, but because of our budget. Until MLB decides to do something about that, it's just the way it is.
ubelmann  December 12, 2008, at 3:31 pm  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Free Agents, Marcel, Nick Punto, Projections
Twins Geek gives his take on the Punto deal here. Mainly, I'm using his post for the list of supposedly available shortstops. I hate compiling such lists and I'm happy that other people do it.
Anyway, if we want to compare offense amongst players who you are considering putting on a 2009 team, we ought to be concerned with what they will hit next year, not what they hit last year. Every year fangraphs has various projections available. (They also have the ever-so-controversial MGL UZR fielding numbers for everyone there now.) Usually this includes ZiPS, CHONE, Bill James, and Marcel. I believe ZiPS usually fares better than all of those projections, and for whatever reason, the last couple of years the Bill James projections have always seemed wildly optimistic to me.
Click here to continue reading A More Relevant Comparison...
2 years, $6M. Izturis and Punto are pretty comparable players, with Izturis being a somewhat worse hitter and somewhat better fielder.
The Twins have signed Nick Punto to a 2 year, $8 million deal. The Twins have an option for 2011, as well. He will apparently be the starting shortstop.
Nicky Punto (2007), David McCarty (1993) and Jim Deshaies (1994) are first-ballot electees to the inaugural class of Page 2's list of the worst seasons ever by franchise.
Punto's and McCarty's seasons were true Hacking Mass legends, but Deshaies's year was nothing to sneeze at: a 7.39 ERA and 30 HRs allowed in 130 innings. He led the AL in starts that season with 25.
1994 was a magical year for Twins' pitching, as the franchise had three of the top ten in hits allowed (Tapani 4th, Erickson 8th and Deshaies 9th) and the team was last in the AL in ERA, hits allowed, and ERA+; next to last in HR allowed and Ks.
ubelmann  August 11, 2008, at 6:00 pm  - (Sorry, but the time to add LTEs has expired) Adam Everett, Brendan Harris, Delmon Young, Derek Jeter, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Nick Punto, Pitching Coaches, Rick Anderson, Sidney Ponson
Ponson vs. Perkins
I don't know what it is, but I have this impression that pitchers heading to the Yankees--whether through the minors or in a trade--seem to regress when they put on the pinstripes. Ponson, for instance, had a fairly respectable 4.47 xFIP in Texas this season, but now has a 5.09 xFIP in New York. I'm guessing that the media would tell you that it's all about the pressure involved with playing in New York, but I kind of wonder if the Yankees have a problem at pitching coach.
One thing that doesn't come up very often in the talks of canning Gardy is that Rick Anderson would likely be gone if anything happened to Gardy, and I think that would be a decidedly bad thing for this team. It seems fairly rare that we get a pitcher and he totally screws the pooch, at least as compared to the hitters that we acquire. You can't squeeze lemonade out of an onion, but Rick Anderson even managed to help Ramon Ortiz and Livan Hernandez to outperform expectations for a while, delaying the inevitable. And I think he's had a lot to do with the Twins' ability to just pick up guys off the scrap heap and make them reasonable options out of the bullpen.
Anyway, it's probably not a huge deal--while I think that Rick Anderson is good, he probably gets paid about as much as he's worth to the team--but I thought it might be worth mentioning.
In a completely unrelated topic, Adam Everett's shoulder is still a problem. I really, really wish it wasn't a problem, but the state of his shoulder really puts Gardy in a bind. Harris is truly horrible at shortstop and should be stationed there only if a middle infielder gets pinch-hit for in the middle of the game. (I guess I could also see it if the other team is throwing a left-handed pitcher and we had a fly-ball/strikeout right-handed pitcher on the mound.) From limited observation, even with the bum shoulder, I think that Everett is going to save us more runs than Harris, but we're certainly not looking at the elite-level human vacuum that Everett was in the past.
But really, our shortstop options just suck right now and while Gardy might be able to pull some strings one way or another to make the most out of a bad situation--it's still a bad situation. If we had a second baseman, Punto would be the best guy to put at SS, but since Harris can't handle the footwork at second base and Everett has no experience there, it doesn't make much sense to force Punto into the shortstop position.
[SBG: Hey folks, it's the Last Regular Season Series between the Yankees and the Twins before the Yankees move into their new ballpark, so I thought I'd add my $0.02.
Player A: .287/.334/.390 OPS+ 97
Player B: .283/.346/.398 OPS+ 99
Player A is a player that's provided much angst among Twins fans. He's not hitting for power, he plays in the field like he's wearing roller skates, and we gave up a good young pitcher in Matt Garza to get him. Yep, it's Delmon Young.
Player B has been much criticized for his defense, too, although he's got more than his fair share of apologists. Defensive metrics have consistently rated him as one of the worst at his position for a long time. But, he's been able to justify that $20,000,000 a year salary with his hitting, clutchiness, and captaincy. Yep, Player B is Derek Jeter (yes, I realize that position adjustments are important). 2008 has seen a significant drop off for Jetes -- he's not had an OPS+ below 110 since his second year in the league. There was a lot of talk not that long ago about Jeter maybe getting to 4,000 hits. But, if this is an indication of his new level of play and not an aberration, he's still about three full seasons from 3,000 hits, which means he'll start his 38 year old season right about there. 4,000 hits seems out of the question. Still, though, we are talking about a shortstop getting to 3,000 hits. That's a pretty big deal. And my, he sure is dreamy.
Jeter has another two years and $41 million left on his 10 year deal. I would have to believe that the Yankees will sign him up for another five years after that, which would put him in a Yankee jersey through his 41 year old season. One wonders, though, what will happen if Jeter continues to put a line up like he has this year. Will the Yankees give a generally crappy shortstop with a league average or worse bat $100,000,000 or more to watch him head into his 40s? It will be interesting.]
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Cup of Coffee  62 LTEs
The melting continues. I'm seeing grass around the trees in the front (north side) of the yard. Roof is ice free. Grass showing up in the back yard. These updates brought to you by someone who is profoundly sick of winter.
Retired WGOM Jokes
- "The Twins should have drafted Mark Prior."
Race to the Bottom: Highest Loss Totals in T-Wolves History 67: 1991-92
63: 1992-93
62: 1993-94
61: 1994-95
60: 1989-90, 2007-08
58: 2008-09
56: 1995-96
53: 1990-91
52: 2009-10
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