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2009 Game 58: Minnesota Identicals at Seattle Seafarers

3:10 p.m CDT
Safeco Field

WFTC29, MLB.tv, TRN

Kevin Slowey (8-1) vs. Erik Bedard (4-2)

They say it's not who you play, it's when you play them. If that's the case, we're getting Erik Bedard at probably the worst possible time. Not that there's ever a real great time to face him,  but he's pitching better than ever this season, and his splits to date would seem to spell even more inevitable doom for the Twins today.

Against left handed hitters Bedard has an opponents' batting average of .185, against right handers he pitches to a .233 average. With the Twin's lefty heavy lineup - advantage, Bedard. In home games, Bedard has a 1.85 ERA, in away games it's 2.72. Hello, Seattle - advantage, Bedard. In day games, Bedard has an ERA of 1.99. In night games, it's 2.79. Seattle start time is 1:10 p.m - advantage, Bedard. On grass, Bedard's ERA is 1.94. On turf, it's .466. Game, set, match, Bedard.

Overall this year, Bedard has a 2.37 ERA, 4th best in the American League, good for an ERA+ of 185. He's 12th on the AL leaderboards with 61 punchouts, tied with Captain Cheeseburger. At thirty years of age, this six-year veteran lefty is having the best season of his life, noticeably better than his overall career numbers. So we have to pin our hopes for generating offense today on regression to the mean, or a wicked one-hopper off Bedard's athletic cup.

I haven't seen either of the games this weekend, but I do like the fact that we've only given up 3 runs in this series, and our starters (including Liriano) have only given up 2. So far it's come done to a pair of pitchers' duels, and with Slowey, who at 8-1 is tied with Zack Greinke for 2nd among AL Wins leaders taking the mound, we could very well get another one in the rubber game today. Let's hope we're on the right side of it if we do.

TWINS (28-29)

1. Denard Span, LF
2. Joe Mauer, C
3. Justin Morneau, DH
4. Joe Crede, 3B
5. Jason Kubel, RF
6. Michael Cuddyer, 1B
7. Brendan Harris, SS
8. Carlos Gomez, CF
9. Alexi Casilla, 2B

MARINERS (27-29)

1. Ichiro Suzuki, RF
2. Russell Branyan, 1B
3. Adrian Beltre, 3B
4. Ken Griffey Jr., DH
5. Jose Lopez, 2B
6. Ronny Cedeno, SS
7. Endy Chavez, LF
8. Jamie Burke, C
9. Franklin Gutierrez, CF

2009 Game 56: Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners

Time: Too f^#$ing late (9:10 CDT!)
TV: FSN / FSNW-HD
MLB.tv and radio

Starters
Francisco Liriano (censored)
vs
Felix Hernandez (redacted to avoid embarrassing Liriano)

After not meeting since 2006, F-bomb and King Felix face off for the third time this year. Liriano now has three straight starts of only four innings. In Liriano's favor though, is Seattle's offensive (3.85 R/G!) offense. They're walk adverse (141, last), but also don't strikeout much (313, second least).

If Gardy was thinking ahead, he would put a good infield defense behind Liriano in hopes of preventing hits from bleeding through the sieve. Okay, he should always do this. Liriano, however, has a career low GB% of 38.5%. Last year his GB% was 41.6%, so his struggles may in part be his transitioning to a flyball pitcher. Walking 4.3/9 certainly doesn't help much.

Looking through Liriano's minor league numbers, it seems he has struggled at times with his control -- albeit not quite this poorly. It's no surprise he relied so heavily on his slider as a way to rack up strikeouts. His (formerly) effective erraticness combined with drop in velocity and a inability to rely on a guaranteed out pitch has finally caught up with Liriano. This might be a lost year for Liriano as he figures out how to pitch.

Series Preview in Blog: Seattle Mariners (6/5-6/7)

It seems like the Twins and Mariners have played each other a ton already this season. But we'll give it another go this weekend, this time in Seattle. Let's see what USS Mariner and Lookout Landing have to say one more time.

Yesterday was an off day for Seattle, and as it came almost exactly one third of the way through the season, it seemed like an ideal time to take stock of the team and the season. The Mariners are 26-28, in third place in the AL West (5.5 GB). Like any team, there are overachievers and underachievers. Minnesota will face two of the starting pitchers on the "likely to get worse" side of things, so hopefully regression is swift and severe for them. The next step after taking stock of the team is to survey the options for improving it. One of the biggest weaknesses has been the middle infield positions, and unfortunately for the Mariners, that deficiency runs pretty deep in their organization.


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Foreign Correspondent: Seattle, WA

Most important things discovered on my fact-finding mission: Mike Sweeney's favorite band is Creed and his favorite television show is American Idol.

Encouraged by field-level $40 tickets discounted to $21, I attended last night's Angels-Mariners game at Safeco Field with some friends. For my roommate's girlfriend, a scandalously young au pair from Austria, it was her first baseball game, and it was an unfortunately bad game.

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2009 Game 30: Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins

Game time: 7:10 CDT
TV: FS-N
Radio: TRN

Probables:
Chris Jakubauskas, RHP (1-3, 5.76, 5.60 xFIP)
vs
Scott Baker (0-4, 9.15, 5.36 xFIP)

Baker's HR/9 so far is 3.48. HR/F is 27.2%. It isn't pretty. Baker's last start he.. uh... come to think of it I don't remember much about that game it seems.

Chris Jakubauskas pitched in independent leagues from 2002 into 2007 when he was signed by the Mariners. He pitched in relief against the Twins on April 8th, going two innings with no runs allowed and one hit. He doesn't miss bats (4.0 K/9) and walks a few (2.2 BB/9). Fangraphs has him as a fastball-curve pitcher (Bert should be happy) with 77.7% and 17.1% respectively. He followed up a good game against the White Sox (8 IP, 2 ER) with a not so good game against he A's (4.3 IP, 4 ER). The A's have the worst offense in the league so maybe the Twins can put up something respectable.

Lineups:
Mariners
Ichiro Suzuki, RF
Endy Chavez, LF
Jose Lopez, 2B
Russell Branyan, 1B
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Ken Griffey Jr., DH
Kenji Johjima, C
Franklin Gutierrez, CF
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

Twins
Denard Span, CF
Matt Tolbert, 2B
Joe Mauer, C
Justin Morneau, 1B
Jason Kubel, DH
Michael Cuddyer, RF
Brian Buscher, 3B
Delmon Young, LF
Brendan Harris, SS

Series Preview in Blog: Seattle Mariners (5/8-5/10)

The Twins (13-16) take on the Mariners (15-14) at home this weekend. Seattle has lost their last four games and fallen out of first place in the AL West. They currently sit one half game behind Texas. The Mariners are 8-7 on the road thus far this season, while the Twins are 9-8 at home.

The latest losing streak aside, this is a team that not many expected to be this close to first place at any point past the first week of the season. The fans have been pleased with the moderate success so far. Some express that pleasure via a short ecstatic blog post, and some feel compelled to shout their love of Mariners' players from the proverbial mountain top.


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Mugshot Purgatory: IF and Ms

With roster changes in the middle infield, I thought I'd highlight a few of the relevant players.
Demoted: Alexi "Laddy" Casilla, the second best second-baseman named Alexi in the Division.
casilla_alexi_2009casilla_alexi_2008aaacasilla_alexi_2008casilla_alexi_2007
(Casilla '09, '08AAA, '07, '06)
Laddy's beard assymmetry disturbs me. My high school job was grocery bag-boy. One of the other bag-boys was a semi-retired farmer who went by "Laddy." He didn't look much like Casilla.

Recalled: Matt "2-hole" Tolbert, and Waiting in AAA: Luke Hughes and Trevor "The Blogger" Plouffe.
tolbert_matt_2009aaahughes_luke_2009aaaplouffe_trevor_2009aaa
tolbert_matt_2009hughes_luke_2009plouffe_trevor_2009
(Tolbert '09AAA, '09; Hughes '09AAA, '09; Plouffe '09AAA, '09)
I have no photos before this year for any of them.

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2009 Twins Game 4: Seattle Mariners at Twins

Radio: TRN.
TV: None.

Good Lord! 10:10 a.m. (Pacific) start! This is soooo wrong!

Our first nooner of the season. What to do? Red Dawg is probably? not available to catch with an opposing lefty on the mound!

Pitching matchup: Jarrod Washburn (L, 5-14, 4.75 ERA, 83 tRA+ in 2008) vs. Glen "Cake-n-Steak" Perkins (L, 12-4, 4.41 ERA, 78 tRA+ in 2008). By tRA+, this game should be a shoot-out. Washburn dropped from "average pitcher" to "Jeremy" last season and he's a lefty, AND this is a contract year for him, so this game could be a struggle for our homeboys. The Mariners have scored 6, 5 and 5 in the three games to date; the Twins 1, 6 and 6. I'm thinking that the over/under on this game should be about 11.

Perkins the Pony may be a hometown hero, but so far his performance has suggested nothing more than back-of-rotation starter or long reliever. His 74:39 K:BB ratio (151 innings) last year doesn't exactly inspire confidence, nor does the 25 HRs he allowed. But if it makes you feel any better, Washburn's ratio was 87:48 K:BB (151.67 innings) with 19 HRs. Let's hope Sheenie makes a lot of money off of Washburn today.

ICHIRO! has been cleared to play and is expected to be activated for today's game. That's good for baseball and the Mariners, if not so good for us. Good thing he's a selfish player, otherwise I'd be more concerned.

In other news, Baby J did some hitting and caught a bullpen session from Light Rail yesterday. LENIII said yesterday that Baker is expected to start on Friday. As for Joe -- "soon." The way Jose Morales is swinging the bat so far, "soon" can't come soon enough.

Finally, will today be the day that the Black Bar is laid to rest at the WGOM? Will the Boss actually get to participate in a game log? Inquiring minds want to know. I hope to join you, but may be distracted by, you know, work.

Game 3: Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins

Time: 7:05 p.m. CDT
TV: FSN
Radio: TRN/XM 180

For me, one of the most exciting things about the Minnesota Twins in 2009 is their depth. The Twins have five quality outfielders to rotate through three outfield spots and DH, plus they have two quality bats for the infield in Buscher and Harris sitting on the bench. They also have some pretty good options to call up for the bullpen (Mijares, Rob Delaney) and the rotation (Dickey, Humber, Duensing, Kevin Mulvey, Anthony Swarzak).

That depth played a big part in last night's win as Gardy was able to trot out Jason Kubel and Brian Buscher to bat for Jose Morales and Nick Punto in the dramatic ninth-inning rally.

This depth also means that the Twins can weather injuries a lot better. I really feel that there are only three players that they can't afford to have go down for an extended period (if no one else is hurt): Mauer, Morneau, and Nathan.

My biggest concern for this season is how Gardy uses this depth, mainly rotating the outfielders. With five guys for four spots, it should be pretty easy to allow everyone to play about 80 percent of the time (barring injury or trade). The task is made even simpler when two of the OFs are left-handed.

I've been a pretty staunch supporter of Gardy over the years, but I am not blind to his weak spots. One thing he has shown over the years is he does not like to use platoons, however, the outfield situation is not a straight platoon situation. As long as he sticks to the following rules he should be fine:

1) Kubel and Span always start against righties.
2) Cuddyer, Gomez, and Young always start against lefties.

If he rotates Kubel and Span vs. lefties and Cuddyer, Gomez, and Young vs. righties, then they should all start between 75 and 85 percent of the games. Gardy already has me concerned about this.

“I think Cuddy’s solidified himself in right field, which I kind of figured he would,” Gardenhire said. “Cuddy’s played really, really good, and the rest of them are all doing about the same.

Gardy seems to be suggesting that he plans on leaving Cuddyer in right field every day, which would be a mistake. With his age and injury problems, Cuddyer would seem the most likely to need every fifth day off. Plus, it would be difficult for Gardy to stick to Rule 1 without keeping Young and Gomez on the bench for long stretches.

The first couple of games have been very telling since the M's started a righty (King Felix) and a lefty (Erik Bedard). So far, Gardy hasn't broken the rules since Young sat against Felix and Kubel sat against Bedard with Cuddyer DHing. Ideally, I would have liked Span to play left and Young in right since Span has more range to play the bigger corner outfield spot and Young was originally a right fielder and Dewan had him as a +7(!) as a RF in Tampa. However, I can understand Gardy not wanting to rotate more than one OF, so as long as he doesn't do anything stupid like DH Span or Gomez (barring injury) I'll be fine with it.

Update: The lineups are out and Delmon is the odd man out once again. Gardy is sticking to the rules so I'm fine with it, and perhaps it will keep Delmon motivated at improving his game.

On to today's game, here are the pitching matchups:

Carlos Silva (4-15, 6.46 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 2008) vs.
Kevin Slowey (12-11, 3.99, 1.15)

Wow, that's some kind of awful for Silva. He has "slimmed down" to 250 pounds, so we'll get the first look at the "Svelte Silva." He gave up nine runs on nine hits in his only start against the Twins last year.

Slowey has never faced the Mariners. He has a career ERA of 3.39 in the Metrodome with a .99 WHIP.

I greatly enjoyed the comeback last night, but the first 8 1/2 innings sucked. I like today's pitching matchup a lot better, so let's not wait until the ninth to take a lead. Let's put this one away early. GO TWINS!

Update: Here are the lineups. No Redmond, but good news from LEN3, Mauer has been catching bullpens and will take batting practice and infield tonight. If all goes well, he will be running "soon."  Joe C. says Redmond has been on the field in catching gear testing out his sore groin.

Mariners                                               Twins
Endy Chavez, RF                                Denard Span, LF
Franklin Gutierrez, CF                     Alexi Casilla, 2B
Ken Griffey, DH                                  Michael Cuddyer, RF
Adrian Beltre, 3B                              Justin Morneau, 1B
Russell Branyan, 1B                         Jason Kubel, DH
Jose Lopez, 2B                                   Joe Crede, 3B
Kenji Johjima, C                                Carlos Gomez, CF
Ronny Cedeno, LF                            Jose Morales, C
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS                Nick Punto, SS

I didn't know Cedeno played the OF.

Game 2: Mariners @ Twins

Erik Bedard (09’ projected stats from PECOTA: 3.67 ERA/3.89 DERA/1.34 WHIP/117 IP)

Vs.

Nick Blackburn (09’ projects stats from PECOTA: 5.22ERA/5.32DERA/1.50WHIP/113.3 IP)

Simulations on these two pitchers vary wildly from Blackburn’s Bill James projection of 196 innings of 4.18 ERA ball to his PECOTA rates seen above. The same can be said of Bedard as well with Bill James also being especially bullish concerning Bedard’s durability expecting 180 innings from the often injured lefty. Will either of these pitchers live up to the hype of Bill James or come crashing back down to earth in the way the PECOTA suggests? The truth is that they will probably fall somewhere in the middle.

Nick Blackburn was ranked the #1 prospect in the Twins organization by Baseball America heading into the 2008 season. Many were surprised by the ranking as most pundits felt that Blackburn wouldn’t even be the best rookie starting on the team in the upcoming season. Blackburn caught Twins fans off guard by pitching well in his first season as a starter with the Twins debuting with a 4.40 FIP in 193.3 innings. Blackburn was able to do this while, in most categories, not showing any drastic changes from his minor league track record.

Minor League Avgs/ 2008

K/BB: 2.82/2.46

BB/9: 2.00/1.82

WHIP: 1.20/1.36

HR/9: 0.60/1.07

K/9: 5.6/4.5

A 2.46 K/BB rate isn’t going to light the world on fire, without a doubt, but it isn’t terrible for a rookie pitcher. The starter who Blackburn often times seem to draw comparisons to, Bob Tewksbury, didn’t reach this total until his second season. As for his BB/9, you really can’t complain when a rookie pitcher posts a better BB/9 rate in the majors than he did in the minors. Concerning his WHIP, chalk up the increase in talent level Blackburn was facing. The major concern of mine is Blackburn nearly doubled the amount of home runs he allowed per nine innings versus his minor league career totals. As for his K/9 rate, while not fantastic, I don’t believe that it is low enough to be a concern just yet.

So the question now becomes, can he sustain the success he had last season (100 ERA+) this season? Or, more to the point, can Nick Blackburn improve upon his rookie season where he was essentially a league average pitcher?

The first step that he could take, in the words of Bert, is to “keep the ball down." The information relating to Blackburn’s GB/FB rate in the minors is not available online but I think it fair to say that he fared better than he did in the majors in allowing ground balls 44.9% of the time. When Blackburn is striking out 11.66% of the batters he faces while allowing that percentage of ground balls he looks suspiciously like Jeff Suppan (11.54% K /BF, 44.4 GB %) or Scott Feldman (11.37K/BF, 43.54% GB). The most troubling statistic for Blackburn, which surely will regress to the mean this season, was his “ability” to stand runners at the rate of 70.7%.

After taking a look at those numbers, I can see why projection systems like PECOTA might be a little harsh on the 2nd year pro. Limiting him to 113 innings though; that I just don’t see.

As for Erik Bedard, I am sure that his story doesn’t need to be told to anyone. After coming over from Baltimore last off-season in exchange for a number of players equivalent to the population in Antarctica, Bedard suffered from shoulder problems which put him on the shelf in early July. When healthy, Bedard has some nasty stuff that rivals any starting lefty in the bigs (outside of Santana, naturally). While it is doubtful that he will return to his 2007 form this season (221K’s, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) he is sure to improve over a lack luster 2008 where he only started 8 games.

Enough with the numbers-- a MUST WIN for the Twins tonight if we hope to stay in the hunt for the divisional crown!

2009 Twins Game 1: Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins

Seattle Mariners 0-0
Minnesota Twins 0-0

Starting Pitchers
Seattle : "King" Felix Hernandez 0-0, 0 IP 0.00 xFIP
Minnesota : Francisco "F-Bomb" Liriano 0-0, 0 IP 0.00 xFIP

It's Opening Day!

I’ll admit that I was planning on a little bit more involved Opening Day post for the Game Log, but well, life and a messy transition from NightmareHost intervened this weekend. But, I think that’s okay. Today isn’t necessarily about analysis of teams. It’s about the joy of a new season starting.

When I was in college oh, so many years ago, Fargo did not have Twins games regularly broadcast on TV. In fact, they didn’t broadcast the opener on TV. It just so happened that in 1986 and again in 1987, the Twins opened up in Oakland, which meant that the game didn’t begin until 9PM local time. I don’t remember the details of the games, but do remember that the Twins won both openers. I also remember that my roommate and I went over to Moorhead, MN to watch the games (because Moorhead had the games on – and Fargo didn’t!) at a little bar in a basement – I forget exactly where. Anyway, I remember being full of optimism both years. In 1986, my optimism went unrewarded, as the Twins stumbled under the weight of a subpar pitching staff. Not only that, but my Mets-loving, Twins-hating neighbor rubbed his team du jour’s World Championship in my face. It seems, though, that in 1987 I was rewarded just a little bit. How’s that go? Ah yes, revenge is a dish best served cold. I called that guy the next year as the Twins danced in celebration after Willie McGee grounded out to third. I only said one word, “Yes!”, but it took me about 45 seconds to enunciate that word. And then, I hung up. He knew it was me. Yes, indeed.

Anyway, hope springs eternal on Opening Day. That roommate from all those years back called me this morning to talk Twins baseball. How about that. Smile I talked with both my ailing in-laws this last weekend about tonight and even in their condition, they were both interested. Opening Day is a special time.

Tonight the Twins take on the Seattle Mariners. Of course, pretty much anyone who follows baseball blogs knows about USS Mariner, the highly analytical and often caustic blog dedicated (is that the right word?) to the Seattle Mariners. Anyway, they are usually not reluctant to call out the hometown club, but they are fanboys of tonight’s starting pitcher, Felix Hernandez. Usually, they announce that Hernandez is pitching by writing “Felix Day. Woo!” Let me borrow a page from them and announce, “Opening Day. Woo!” Oh, and Go Twins!

Rotations

[Update] As mentioned by greenmachine in the comments, Baker's got right shoulder stiffness and is being placed on the DL. That's what I get for attempting to figure out the rotation, I guess. It's pretty typical that a team sees two of its starting pitchers get injured during the season (necessitating the use of 7 or more starters), but it's unfortunate that we've got two of them (Baker and Bonser) injured before the season even starts. I think that knuckleballers are kind of fun, but the drop-off from Baker to Dickey will significantly hurt the Twins if it persists for very long.[/Update]

It looks like the Mariners' probables for the opening series (Next week! Real baseball!!) will be Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Carlos Silva, and Jarrod Washburn. I have to be honest, after reading the aforelinked blog post, I hadn't thought much about the order of the Twins' rotation. Of course this might have something to do with me not really caring that much about the order of the rotation.

I think at some point I heard that Scott Baker will be starting, and he last pitched in a Grapefruit League game on the 27th. I'm assuming he made a minor league start somewhere yesterday (Felix Hernandez also made a minor league start IIRC--both teams are probably paranoid about scouting or something.) That would put Baker in line for the Opening Day start.

Liriano pitched on the 28th, Slowey pitched the 29th, Perkins threw on the 30th, and Blackburn pitched on the 31st. That would seem to make the rotation (and their Marcel-projected FIP):

Baker/3.97
Liriano/3.77 vs. 3.71/Felix Hernandez
Slowey/4.18 vs. 3.74/Erik Bedard
Perkins/4.68 vs. 4.57/Carlos Silva
Blackburn/4.32 vs. 4.68/Jarrod Washburn
Dickey/5.04

As far as I know, Blackburn's good to go for the start of the season and there aren't any other real injury concerns in the rotation. [Oops!] I don't think it's a huge deal, but it's probably nice that the lefties in our rotation our split up and it essentially goes in order from best to worst, too. (I am still a Perkins doubter, but some people like his stuff so there's room for improvement on his stats, which have been fairly bad. Of course, with Blackburn's knee issues, I can see wanting to put him at the end of the rotation.)

[This paragraph now irrelevant]Looking forward to playing the Mariners, Felix Hernandez is better than Scott Baker (though maybe by less than I expected--when he's on he's untouchable, though), Liriano v. Bedard is a battle of two ace-quality injury-prone lefties, Slowey v. Silva favors Slowey, and Washburn v. Perkins is a battle of two awfully mediocre/bad lefties. Those pairs are almost eerily evenly-matched.[/irrelevant]

Griffey to Mariners Finally

Straight from the horses mouth:

Griffey accepted the Mariners' one-year contract offer, which includes a $2 million base salary and up to $2.5 million in incentives -- based on at-bats and attendance. His return to Safeco Field is expected to lure at least 20

My favorite part of the article: "The 39-year-old Griffey is expected to bring No. 24 out of storage when he arrives"

Losing Jose Lugo

Jose Lugo was selected by the Royals and promptly traded to the Mariners in today's Rule 5 draft. According to Baseball America:

Lugo, who turns 25 next April, has a 95 mph heater with good sink and struck out 9.91 per nine innings as a reliever at high Class A Fort Myers.


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Three-Way Deal, Santana’s Leads Even More Safe

This is the biggest three-way since ... I don' know, since three really fat people got it on a while ago. I count 12 players involved.

USS Mariner, Looking Landing, Let's Go Tribe, MetsBlog takes.

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